Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Grigorieva, Elena A.

doi:10.3390/atmos11040404

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…The mysteries of uncertainty arise from knowing what future climate to expect before communicating planned decisions. The solution may be to apply sensitivity analysis, which can show areas with high sensitivity to climate change and the degree of their potential impact [172]. These assumptions about the likely success of adaptation can be made based on a very small amount of research.…”

Section: Catching Maladaptation Before It Happensmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change: A Scoping Review

Grigorieva,

Livenets,

Stelmakh

2023

Climate

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Since agricultural productivity is weather and climate-related and fundamentally depends on climate stability, climate change poses many diverse challenges to agricultural activities. The objective of this study is to review adaptation strategies and interventions in countries around the world proposed for implementation to reduce the impact of climate change on agricultural development and production at various spatial scales. A literature search was conducted in June–August 2023 using electronic databases Google Scholar and Scientific Electronic Library eLibrary.RU, seeking the key words “climate”, “climate change”, and “agriculture adaptation”. Sixty-five studies were identified and selected for the review. The negative impacts of climate change are expressed in terms of reduced crop yields and crop area, impacts on biotic and abiotic factors, economic losses, increased labor, and equipment costs. Strategies and actions for agricultural adaptation that can be emphasized at local and regional levels are: crop varieties and management, including land use change and innovative breeding techniques; water and soil management, including agronomic practices; farmer training and knowledge transfer; at regional and national levels: financial schemes, insurance, migration, and culture; agricultural and meteorological services; and R&D, including the development of early warning systems. Adaptation strategies depend on the local context, region, or country; limiting the discussion of options and measures to only one type of approach—"top-down” or “bottom-up”—may lead to unsatisfactory solutions for those areas most affected by climate change but with few resources to adapt to it. Biodiversity-based, or “ecologically intensive” agriculture, and climate-smart agriculture are low-impact strategies with strong ecological modernization of agriculture, aiming to sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes while addressing the interrelated challenges of climate change and food security. Some adaptation measures taken in response to climate change may not be sufficient and may even increase vulnerability to climate change. Future research should focus on adaptation options to explore the readiness of farmers and society to adopt new adaptation strategies and the constraints they face, as well as the main factors affecting them, in order to detect maladaptation before it occurs.

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Section: Catching Maladaptation Before It Happensmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Exposure to multiple stresses and impacts leads to growing uncertainties and higher vulnerabilities [6,103]. In short, it is not easy to find the right solution anyway, and unfortunately, there will be winners and losers [31,172].…”

Section: Catching Maladaptation Before It Happensmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change: A Scoping Review

Grigorieva,

Livenets,

Stelmakh

2023

Climate

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“…The lethal temperature limits for maize are comparatively high to be achieved in the surface air (46 • C) but those for plant growth and reproductive processes such as shoot development (38.9 • C), tassel initiation (39.2 • C), anthesis (37.3 • C) and grain filling (36 • C) are much lower (Sánchez et al, 2014). In addition, and most importantly, global change will alter the satisfaction of the required growing degree days, the phenoclimatic temperature conditions needed for different phases of plant development (Grigorieva, 2020). In many tropical areas, water deficit and temperature effects on the maize crop can also occur at the same time with interactive effects on growth and development of the plant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Effect on Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability Over Southern Africa

et al. 2022

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Southern Africa has been identified as one of the hotspot areas of climate extremes increasing, at the same time many communities in the region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to these rainfall and temperature extremes. The aim of this study is to understand changes in extreme indices during the agricultural season under climate change and how that affect the modeling of maize suitability in Southern Africa. We analyze the changes in rainfall and its extreme indices (consecutive dry days, heavy rain events and prolonged rainfall events), and temperature and its extreme indices (hot night temperatures, hot day temperatures and frequency of very hot days) from the past (1986–2014) to the future (2036–2064) and integrate these into a maize suitability model. Temperature extremes are projected to increase in both duration and intensity, particularly in the eastern parts of the region. Also, consecutive dry days are projected to increase over larger areas during the agricultural season, while rainfall will be less in sums, heavier in intensity and less prolonged in duration. Including extreme climate indices in maize suitability modeling improves the efficiency of the maize suitability model and shows more severe changes in maize suitability over Southern Africa than using season-long climatic variables. We conclude that changes in climate extremes will increase and complicate the livelihood-climate nexus in Southern Africa in the future, and therefore, a set of comprehensive adaptation options for the agricultural sector are needed. These include the use of heat, drought and high-intensity rainfall tolerant maize varieties, irrigation and/or soil water conservation techniques, and in some cases switching from maize to other crops.

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“…The main factors of crop production development are climatic conditions [1][2][3][4]. The influence of natural and climatic factors on the formation of yield and the quality of the products obtained from agricultural crops has been repeatedly emphasized by many researchers [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agrometeorological characteristics of spring oat varieties created in the conditions of the Northern Trans-Urals

Фомина

2021

BIO Web Conf.

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An agrometeorollological assessment of five oat varieties (Megion, Talisman, Otrada, Foma, Tobolyak) of the breeding of the Northern Trans-Urals Research Institute of Agriculture - branch of the TyumSC SB RAS is given. The effect of the average daily air temperature and precipitation on the growth and development of plants has been established. The sensitivity of varieties to temperature is estimated. It was found that the optimal average daily air temperature during the sprout – ear emergence period was 16.4 … 16.8°C, during the ear emergence – waxy ripeness period - 17.5…19.4°C. The sums of effective temperatures over 10°C necessary for optimal growth and development of oat varieties are calculated. Varieties Megion, Talisman, Foma and Tobolyak in the period of sprout – ear emergence required a greater amount of effective temperatures (705.2…747.0°C) than in the period of ear emergence - wax ripeness (611.2…640.2°C). In the Otrada variety, the need for heat was slightly higher in the second interphase period (717.5°C) compared to the first (705.6°C). The optimal amount of precipitation required for the formation of a high yield (189.4…243.6 mm) is calculated. To realize the genetic potential of the Talisman and Otrada varieties, most of the precipitation is necessary during the sprout – ear emergence period, and the Megion, Foma and Tobolyak varieties - during the period of ear emergence - waxy ripeness.

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Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Cited by 9 publications

References 78 publications

Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change: A Scoping Review

Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change: A Scoping Review

Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Effect on Maize (Zea mays L.) Suitability Over Southern Africa

Agrometeorological characteristics of spring oat varieties created in the conditions of the Northern Trans-Urals

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