Evaluating the President on Your Priorities: Issue Priorities, Policy Performance, and Presidential Approval, 1981–2016

Abstract

This article builds on the satisficing and attribution theories to propose a model of presidential approval where issue priorities moderate the association between presidents' policy performance evaluations and overall approval. The data include aggregate time-series and cross-sectional individual-level data of presidential approval, presidential performance evaluations, and issue priorities from Reagan to Obama. The results demonstrate that people give more weight to the issues they prioritize, and therefore their evaluation of the president's performance on those issues matters more in their overall assessment of the president. The impact of issue priorities on approval varies by topic but is not further moderated by party affiliation. The results advance our understanding of the individual determinants of presidential approval and the role that issue priorities play in public opinion.

Pandemic politics: policy evaluations of government responses to COVID-19

“…The unique nature of the pandemic also implies that understanding the extent and the sources of the public's (dis)approval of the policy responses is even more crucial than in crisis moments in the past. Though policy evaluations on particular issue domains have long been shown to have the potential to make or break governments, or at least shape their re-election prospects (Cavari 2019;Goerres and Walter 2016;Highton 2012), the current pandemic may point beyond 'business as usual' with more far-reaching consequences. Decisions that decide the fate of thousands of lives coupled with the sharpest fall in economic activity in the post-war period may be expected to trigger what Roberts (2008) referred to as 'hyper-accountability' in the context of post-communism transition.…”

“It's the War, Stupid!”: Determinants of Retrospective Evaluations of American Presidents

“…News coverage of presidents and policies in real time varies by the topic, and the resulting saliency of an issue affects public assessments of the incumbent president (Cavari 2019; Krosnick and Kinder 1990; Ostrom et al 2018). A similar dynamic of saliency might affect retrospective approval of presidents.…”

“…The standardized regression coefficient for connection to the Vietnam War indicates that this war most influences retrospective approval of presidents. Cavari (2019), Edwards, Mitchell, and Welch (1995), and Ostrom et al (2018) show that the influence of economic conditions and war on presidents' approval ratings was conditioned by the saliency of the issue. It appears that the role of issue saliency extends to assessments of former presidents.…”

Explaining Presidential Approval, 1993-2020: An Examination of the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump Presidencies

“…Since it first began to be used in political science, the notion of salience has been applied to denote a form of engagement with an issue and to capture what people attend to and care about (RePass 1971;Moniz and Wlezien 2020). Recent research has demonstrated that the four elements of the political environment just described have more impact on approval when they are salient (e.g., Edwards et al 1995;Cavari 2019). Since issue salience changes over time, Edwards et al (1995, p. 110, emphasis added) argue that "understanding presidential approval, then, requires identifying not only what issues Americans think about but also gauging the degree of salience Americans place on these issues.…”

“…Using prior scholarship, we build a synthetic model of approval ratings that acknowledges the importance of (1) four fundamental elements of the environmental connection (peace, prosperity, presidential leadership, and security), (2) issue salience (e.g., Edwards et al 1995;Ostrom Jr et al 2018;Cavari 2019), and (3) politically informed perceptions of the president's handling of the economy (e.g., Evans and Pickup 2010;Dickerson 2016;Cavari 2019). Synthesizing these three research strands provides a generalizable model with sensible estimates across these four presidencies.…”