Evaluating the Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models

Zhang, Kequan; Duan, Jiakang; Zhao, Siyi; Zhang, Jiankai; Keeble, James; Liu, Hong‐Wen

doi:10.1007/s00376-021-0442-2

Cited by 10 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Moreover, previous studies suggested that compared with the WACCM-SC without chemical-climate coupling, the simulation by the CESM1-WACCM model with interactive chemistry shows a smaller bias against realistic stratospheric processes [39]. Similarly, Zhang et al [68] the study shows that the coupled chemical-radiativedynamical processes play a key role in the CMIP6 simulation of the stratospheric processes. Kawa et al [69] pointed out a possible feedback process between ozone chemistry and the dynamics of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Evaluating Long-Term Variability of the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Simulated by CMIP6 Models

Zhao

Zhang

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is a key component of the climate system, which has significant impacts on surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes and polar regions. Therefore, understanding polar vortex variability is helpful for extended-range weather forecasting. The present study evaluates long-term changes in the position and strength of the polar vortex in the Arctic lower stratosphere during the winters from 1980/81 to 2013/14. Simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are compared with Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2) reanalysis dataset. Overall, the CMIP6 models well capture the spatial characteristics of the polar vortex with spatial correlation coefficients between the potential vorticity (PV) in the lower stratosphere from simulations and MERRA2 products generally greater than 0.85 for all CMIP6 models during winter. There is a good agreement in the position and shape of the polar vortex between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and MERRA2, although there exist differences between simulations of individual CMIP6 models. However, most CMIP6 models underestimate the strength of polar vortex in the lower stratosphere, with the largest negative bias up to about −20%. The present study further reveals that there is an anticorrelation between the polar vortex strength bias and area bias simulated by CMIP6 models. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the trend of EP-flux divergence for wavenumber one accumulated in early winter and the trend in zonal mean zonal wind averaged in late winter. As for the long-term change in polar vortex position, CanESM5, IPSL-CM5A2-INCA, UKESM1-0-LL, and IPSL-CM6A-LR well capture the persistent shift of polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent and away from North America in February, which has been reported in observations. These models reproduce the positive trend of wavenumber-1 planetary waves since the 1980s seen in the MERRA2 dataset. This suggests that realistic wave activity processes in CMIP6 models play a key role not only in the simulation of the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex but also in the simulation of the polar vortex position shift.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Evaluating Long-Term Variability of the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Simulated by CMIP6 Models

Zhao

Zhang

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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“…To characterize the OVTP, the monthly zonal ozone deviation obtained by subtracting the zonal mean from the TCO is calculated over the Tibetan region (75°-105°E, 25°-45°N) 32,41,42 . The result indicates that the strongest zonal ozone deviation period over the TP occurs from May to July during 1979-2022 (not shown).…”

Section: Relationship Between the Ovtp And The East Asian Summer Prec...mentioning

confidence: 99%

To what extent can the Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau influence the East Asian summer precipitation?

Zhu

2023

Preprint

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The ozone valley over the Tibetan Plateau (OVTP) has experienced significant interannual variations during the past decades. Previous studies have primarily focused on the origins of OVTP, while the climate impact of OVTP is still an open question. This study reveals that OVTP during its peak season (May-July) explains approximately 15% of the summer precipitation variability in East Asia. The results suggest that the surface temperature (Ts) anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) acts as a link between OVTP and East Asian precipitation. Causality analysis confirms that the intensification of OVTP leads to a significant increase in Ts over northwestern TP. Through a positive land-atmosphere feedback, the Ts anomaly over the TP is amplified. The anomalous Ts pattern persists into summer (June-August) due to the land memory effect and impacts the East Asian precipitation by modulating the local circulation. Numerical experiments show that diabatic heating over the TP induces an anomalous anti-cyclone centered over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, leading to negative precipitation anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin and positive precipitation anomalies in southern China. Our analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models reveals that more accurate prediction of East Asian precipitation requires improved understanding of the relationship between OVTP and TP Ts.

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“…It has been widely reported that the variations of the ozone content over these regions can significantly impact global climate (Ma & Wang, 2023; Tian et al., 2023; Xie et al., 2023). The formation of ozone depletion over the two poles has been well understood (Bian et al., 2020; Rao & Garfinkel, 2020, 2021; World Meteorological Organization, 2022; Zhang et al., 2022). In contrast, some studies also focus on the formation of ozone valleys over high‐terrain regions (Guo et al., 2015; Hingane, 1990; Santee et al., 2017) from a perspective view of the mean flow.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the Climatic Characteristics of Ozone Valley Over the Tibetan Plateau and the Rocky Mountains

Shen,

Rao,

Guo

et al. 2024

Earth and Space Science

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This study compares the ozone valleys over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Rocky Mountains (RM) using the ERA5 reanalysis data set. The dynamical transport of the ozone over these two regions is analyzed using the Lorenz circulation decomposition method. The ozone content valley over TP is observed around 200–50 hPa (upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, or UTLS), and that over RM is around 300–100 hPa. It is shown that the TP ozone content is smaller than that over RM. By analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of the ozone content and the general circulation, the anticyclone over Southern Asian (SAH) plays a significant role in existence of the TP ozone valley, and the ozone content flux reaches its maximum in July. Large‐scale terrain and related general circulation determine the ozone valley appearance. Further analysis suggests that stationary transport has a larger impact on the ozone valley formation than the transient transport. The transport by the zonal circulation nearly cancels out most of that by the meridional circulation, due to the fact that the zonal transport magnitude is nearly equal to the meridional transport. The transport center over the RM is much weaker than that over the TP. Furthermore, the contrasts between transient and stationary transports are less evident over RM than over TP. The eddy‐driven stationary ozone transport flux significantly impacts the development of the two low ozone centers across these large terrains.

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Evaluating the Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau in CMIP6 Models

Cited by 10 publications

References 69 publications

Evaluating Long-Term Variability of the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Simulated by CMIP6 Models

Evaluating Long-Term Variability of the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Simulated by CMIP6 Models

To what extent can the Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau influence the East Asian summer precipitation?

Comparison of the Climatic Characteristics of Ozone Valley Over the Tibetan Plateau and the Rocky Mountains

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