Evaluating the key risk factors in PPP-procured mass housing projects in Nigeria: a Delphi study of industry experts

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of the study is to elicit risk factors that are peculiar to public-private partnership (PPP)-procured mass housing in Nigeria from the expert perspectives in ensuring the success of the scheme thereby reducing housing deficit in the country. Design/methodology/approach The risk inherent in construction projects had been established through literature in general. The risk in PPP projects is emerging because of the recent acceptance of the procurement option by governments all over the globe. The Nigerian Government has also adopted the procurement option in bridging the housing deficit in the country. This study, therefore, conducts a Delphi survey on the probability of risk occurrence peculiar to PPP mass housing projects (MHPs) in Nigeria. Pragmatic research approach through the mixed method of both quantitative and qualitative methods was adopted for this study. The quantitative method adopts the administration of questionnaires through the Delphi survey, whereas the qualitative method used interviews with the respondents. A two-stage Delphi questionnaire was administered to construction practitioners that cut across academics, the public and the private sectors by adopting convenient sampling techniques and following the Delphi principles and procedures. A total of 63 risk factors were submitted to the expert to rank on a Likert scale of 7 and any risk factors that the mean item score (MIS) falls below the grading scale of the five-point benchmark is deemed not necessary a risk factor associated with PPP MHPs and thereby expunged from the second round of the Delphi Survey. The interview was subsequently applied to the respondents to substantiate the risk factors that are peculiar to PPP-procured mass housing in the study area. Findings The findings show that risk factors such as maintenance frequent than expected, life of facility shorter than anticipated and maintenance cost higher than expected fall below 5.0 benchmark with MIS of 4.64 and 4.55 indicating that the risk factors are not peculiar to PPP mass housing in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications The implication for practise of this research is that these risk factors provide the PPP stakeholders with the comprehensive checklists that can aid in developing PPP risk assessment guidelines in the sector though both partners should be aware of the dynamic nature of risk because new ones might be emerging. Originality/value The authors hereby declare that the research findings are a product of a thorough research conducted in the study area and have not to be submitted or published by another person or publisher and due acknowledgement was made where necessary.

Evaluating and optimizing performance of public–private partnership projects using copula Bayesian network

“…This research used the Delphi method to restrict KPIs to the most influential ones to simplify the CBN (Rowe and Wright, 1999). Using extensive questionnaires and structured feedback, the Delphi method is one of the most reliable methods of acquiring results from a group of experts (Arijeloye et al, 2021). To estimate the number of interviewees, this study followed the standard Delphi approaches and selected nine experts' (Steurer, 2011) with more than 15 years of experience in PPPs as performance managers to validate and determine the 20 most influential KPIs.…”

“…Three had more than 20 years of experience in PPPs as construction managers, and the others worked as performance and operation managers for 15 to 18 years. The interview proceeded in 3 rounds (Arijeloye et al, 2021;Steurer, 2011). In the first round, the KPIs and their categories were validated.…”

“…The second round of the interviews was based on the 5-point Likert scale, a helpful technique to reduce redundant data (Liyanage and Villalba-Romero, 2015;Okudan et al, 2020), and the KPIs selection was reviewed and finalized in the third round. The method was validated by following the Delphi principles, including anonymity and feedback (Arijeloye et al, 2021;Steurer, 2011). As the outcome of KPIs selection, the computational cost is reduced, prediction accuracy is improved, and the causality between KPIs and targets is clarified (Chen et al, 2021;Guyon and Elisseeff, 2003).…”

“…This research used the Delphi method to restrict KPIs to the most influential ones to simplify the CBN (Rowe and Wright, 1999). Using extensive questionnaires and structured feedback, the Delphi method is one of the most reliable methods of acquiring results from a group of experts (Arijeloye et al. , 2021).…”

“…, 2020), and the KPIs selection was reviewed and finalized in the third round. The method was validated by following the Delphi principles, including anonymity and feedback (Arijeloye et al. , 2021; Steurer, 2011).…”