Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

Abstract

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aids or impairs decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly di cult tasks, this research evaluates the e↵ect of five di↵erent visualizations and a text based representation on decisionmaking under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little di↵erence to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing di culty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were amongst the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.

Designing environmental uncertainty information for experts and non‐experts: Does data presentation affect users’ decisions and interpretations?

“…Past research in natural hazard decision‐making has disagreed on whether changing forecast representation changes decisions. The results from this research are similar to previous research, which suggests that changing the forecast representation did not change decisions (e.g., Nadav‐Greenberg and Joslyn, ; Cheong et al ., ). These findings are contrary to Savelli and Joslyn (), who suggested that visualizations may be detrimental to decisions when compared with verbal methods of communication.…”

Integrating Volcanic Hazard Data in a Systematic Approach to Develop Volcanic Hazard Maps in the Lesser Antilles

“…Other studies have shown how design elements such as colour, symbology, data classification (e.g., stretched vs. binned), map content (including borders, landmarks etc. ), and use of gradational shading can significantly affect the way in which users interpret information on a map (e.g., Monmonier, 1996;Olson and Brewer, 1997;Severtson and Vatovec, 2012;Thompson et al, 2015Thompson et al, , 2017Cheong et al, 2016). Our personal experience has also shown this to be the case.…”

More Than Meets the Eye: Volcanic Hazard Map Design and Visual Communication

“…Well-designed visualisations can augment and enhance this cognitive processing by reducing cognitive load and facilitating inductive reasoning (Hegarty 2011;Patterson et al 2014). Accordingly, visual map products have been found to improve comprehension of hazard information when compared to non-visual communication formats such as text and tables (Severtson and Vatovec 2012;Cheong et al 2016;Cao et al 2016). However, there are many variables to consider when visually designing a map, and it can often be difficult to determine which combination of variables will support cognition and reasoning.…”

“…Modified from Thompson et al (2015) wildfire (e.g., Cheong et al 2016), hurricane (e.g., Broad et al 2007;Sherman-Morris et al 2015), flooding (e.g., Strathie et al 2015), sea level rise (e.g., Retchless 2014), and health (e.g., Severtson and Myers 2013). For example, researchers have found that visual design of wildfire hazard maps can influence people's interest and engagement with the hazard information and also how they use it to make decisions about evacuation (Cao et al 2016;Cheong et al 2016). Similarly, visual design has been found to influence emotional and behavioural responses to tornado warning maps (Ash et al 2014).…”