Evaluating the impact of multi scenario land use change simulation on carbon storage at different scales: a case study of Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration

Abstract

Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems is crucial to advance carbon neutrality and support sustainable development. Extensive studies have explored the effect of land use change on carbon storage, especially urban expansion. As one of the world’s top urban agglomerations, the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) is facing a dramatic loss of carbon storage along with urbanization. Coordinating economic development and ecological protection and achieving low-carbon green development are urgently needed to alleviate the decline in urban carbon storage. Here, we quantified land use change in the historical period (2000, 2010, 2020) and in 2030 and then estimated carbon storage dynamics at different scales by combining the PLUS model and the InVEST model. We found that: (1) Construction land significantly increased simultaneously with considerable losses of farmland (2273.29 km2) and forestland (949.98 km2) from 2010–2020. In 2030, construction land will expand by 997.83 km2 (12.51%), 1419.97 km2 (17.79%), and 238.60 km2 (2.99%) under the natural growth (NG), urban expansion (UE), and low carbon development (LCD) scenarios, respectively. (2) Compared to 2020, carbon storage under the LCD will reach 6.51×108 Mg, with the lowest decline rate (0.35%). (3) At the city level, Shenzhen had the highest decline rate under various scenarios, followed by Zhuhai and Guangzhou. At the county scale, carbon storage followed the order NG > UE > LCD in 2000–2030. At the grid scale, carbon storage showed a declining trend from the central PRDUA region to marginal areas. Thus, comprehensive considering the multiscale effects of land use change on carbon storage was beneficial to formulate reasonable measures for specific areas. Differentiated development categories at different scales and low-carbon industrial upgrading should be implemented to maintain ecosystem services and achieve sustainable development.

Characteristics and driving forces of spatiotemporal use change in urban agglomerations from the perspective of functional zoning - Taking the Central Plains urban agglomeration as an example

“…Relevant scholars mainly focus on relatively mature urban agglomerations such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations, etc. (Lu and Zhang 2022;Niu et al 2022;Wen et al 2023); the land use and driving mechanism of the "developing" urban agglomerations in the central and western parts of the country have not been sufficiently explored. Socio-economic and topographic differences within urban agglomerations, as well as certain conflicts or coordination between general development plans and local development plans, can lead to significant spatial differences in land use changes (Zhang et al 2019).Functional zoning, as an effective means of revealing the spatial heterogeneity of land, is also a prerequisite for the optimization of national land space, and is binding on all types of land use development activities (Wang et al 2022).Existing research on land use and its driving mechanism in urban agglomerations is mostly from the perspective of urban agglomerations as a whole, and the investigation of the differences between different subregions of urban agglomerations is relatively weak.…”