Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

Matrajt, Laura; Leung, Tiffany

doi:10.1101/2020.03.27.20044891

Cited by 32 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(20 reference statements)

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“…Early data to support the efficacy of various NPI measures in reducing SARS-CoV-2 spread has relied mostly on model-based analysis rather than empirical data derived from observations in the real world. [13][14][15][16][17][18][19] As cases have accumulated around the world, it has become increasingly possible to retrospectively assess the impact of NPIs on measured outcomes, as presented in this study. Previous characterization of disease burden across research studies and news sources has largely relied on the metrics of cumulative case and death counts; however, these metrics are unidirectional and do not account for bidirectional changes in the rate of viral transmission over time, a much more powerful metric for predicting an epidemic's trajectory.…”

Section: Context and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous modeling studies predicted that 'social distancing' policies could be critical in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. [13][14][15][16][17][18][19] Recent reports have begun exploring the effectiveness of social distancing in reducing disease spread at the country level and local county level. 2,[20][21][22] Mandated NPIs have also been associated with reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

Dreher

Spiera

McAuley

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Policymakers have employed various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)such as stay-at-home orders and school closures to limit the spread of Coronavirus disease . However, these measures are not without cost, and careful analysis is critical to quantify their impact on disease spread and guide future initiatives. This study aims to measure the impact of NPIs on the effective reproductive number (Rt) and other COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. states. Methods:In order to standardize the stage of disease spread in each state, this study analyzes the weeks immediately after each state reached 500 cases. The primary outcomes were average Rt in the week following 500 cases and doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases. Linear and logistic regressions were performed in R to assess the impact of various NPIs while controlling for population density, GDP, and certain health metrics. This analysis was repeated for deaths with doubling time from 50 to 100 deaths and included several healthcare infrastructure control variables. Results:States that had a stay-at-home order in place at the time of their 500th case are associated with lower average Rt the following week compared to states without a stay-at-home order (p < 0.001) and are significantly less likely to have an Rt>1 (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.37, p = 0.004). These states also experienced a significantly longer doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.72, p = 0.004). States in the highest quartile of average time spent at home were also slower to reach 1000 cases than those in the lowest quartile (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.53, p = 0.002).Discussion: Few studies have analyzed the effect of statewide stay-at-home orders, school closures, and other social distancing measures in the U.S., which has faced the largest COVID-19 case burden. States with stay-at-home orders have a 93% decrease in the odds of having a positive Rt at a standardized point in disease burden. States that plan to scale back such measures should carefully monitor transmission metrics.

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Section: Context and Contributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

Dreher

Spiera

McAuley

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…[9] Most practitioners in the survey felt that general measures are effective in containing the pandemic in day to day practice and complete PPEs to be reserved to workers dealing with high risk patients. A common sense, rationed approach to the availability of resources like PPEs and the magnitude of this pandemic is being followed cautiously not only in India but all over the world [33,34]. There was mixed response to HCQ prophylaxis as the evidence and availability are an issue.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on gynecological oncology care: Glimpse into Association of Gynecological Oncologists of India (AGOI) perspective

Bhandoria

Shylasree

Bhandarkar

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Purpose: The notorious COVID 19 pandemic has caused rapid and drastic changes in cancer care all over the world in 2020. This online survey aims to assess the extent to which the pandemic has affected cancer care in gynecological oncology amongst members of Association of Gynecological Oncologists of India (AGOI), a registered professional society, founded in 1991. Methods: We developed and administered a cross-sectional, flash survey to members of The Association of Gynecological Oncologists of India (AGOI) in the first week of April 2020. Data were analyzed using Microsoft Office Excel 2016. Results were expressed as percentages of total responses excluding blank or unattended response. Overall theme-specific responses were expressed as a spectrum of finding and related inferences were drawn.Results: Among approached practitioners, 90 responded to the survey, more than 80 % were practicing consultants and more than 50 % from academic institutions. Results of the survey showed that the ongoing pandemic had severely affected gynecological oncology practice and care amongst all responders. There were modifications in diagnostic pathways, interventions and follow ups across all organ sites. There was near unanimous opinion on use of general safety measures to combat the virus and to use complete PPEs in high risk situation. There was mixed responses to alternative educational activities especially using electronic technology and distant learning methods. There was an optimism among responders with regards to the current situation normalizing in 3 to 6 months. Conclusion: This study documents the pandemic affected scenario of gynecological cancer care and perceptions of Gynecological Oncologists in India. Significant effect on all aspects of cancer care were observed. Technological learning methods both for patient care and educational activities were being adopted by many responders. Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, gynecological oncology care, survey, AGOI

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“…17 The implementation of social distancing is the core component of the responses towards the COVID-19 pandemic. 18,19 Several practices related to social distancing are aimed at reducing the probability of new infection by minimizing the physical contact between individuals. 20 Even though the risk for the severity level of COVID-19 disease is different, each individual can possibly become infected and spread the virus.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between understanding of COVID-19's infographics and the efforts to prevent COVID-19 transmission

Bakhtiar

Hilda²,

Duma

et al. 2020

J Community Empowerment for Health

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The prevention of disease transmission is an effective cost-strategy in controlling COVID-19. The scenario of the control of COVID-19 in Samarinda City consists of 3 phases, namely initial, advanced, and recovery. The outcome of the advanced phase is flattening the transmission curve of the COVID-19 pandemic, with an increased proportion of patients in recovery, and an increased culture of preventing disease transmission in society. This study aimed at knowing the influence of the understanding of COVID-19 infographics on the efforts to prevent COVID-19 transmission at the advanced phase. A survey was conducted via social media from April 21st to April 30th, 2020. The preventive actions for the disease transmission as the dependent variable in this study were social distancing, wearing a mask, washing hands, and efforts to enhance the body’s immunity, while the independent variable was the understanding of COVID-19 infographics updated daily. The results of the study showed that the proportion of the population who understood the infographics well was 79.5%, the community participation in practicing social distancing (81.6%), wearing a mask (50.9%), washing hands as frequently as possible (74.3%), and the efforts to strengthen the body’s immune system (73.6%) with a consistency level of 55.12%. The lowest rate for the activity of social distancing was visiting elders or the people suffering from comorbidities with 54.71%. A good understanding of infographics could increase adherence to the recommendations of social distancing. The implementation of social distancing, wearing a mask, washing hands as frequently as possible, and the efforts to improve the body’s immune system need to be done consistently to prevent the COVID-19 transmission and as a result, the potential transmission could be minimized to optimize the recovery phase and anticipate the possible second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against COVID-19

Cited by 32 publications

References 15 publications

Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on gynecological oncology care: Glimpse into Association of Gynecological Oncologists of India (AGOI) perspective

Relationship between understanding of COVID-19's infographics and the efforts to prevent COVID-19 transmission

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