Evaluating the effectiveness of lockdowns and restrictions during SARS-CoV-2 variant waves in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia

Abstract

IntroductionAfter the initial onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the government of Canada and provincial health authorities imposed restrictive policies to limit virus transmission and mitigate disease burden. In this study, the pandemic implications in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia (NS) were evaluated as a function of the movement of people and governmental restrictions during successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves (i.e., Alpha through Omicron).MethodsPublicly available data obtained from community mobility reports (Google), the Bank of Canada Stringency Index, the “COVID-19 Tracker” service, including cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccines, population mobility trends, and governmental response data were used to relate the effectiveness of policies in controlling movement and containing multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2.ResultsOur results indicate that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic inflicted low burden in NS in the initial 2 years of the pandemic. In this period, we identified reduced mobility patterns in the population. We also observed a negative correlation between public transport (−0.78), workplace (−0.69), retail and recreation (−0.68) and governmental restrictions, indicating a tight governmental control of these movement patterns. During the initial 2 years, governmental restrictions were high and the movement of people low, characterizing a ‘seek-and-destroy’ approach. Following this phase, the highly transmissible Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant began circulating in NS at the end of the second year, leading to increased cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. During this Omicron period, unsustainable governmental restrictions and waning public adherence led to increased population mobility, despite increased transmissibility (26.41-fold increase) and lethality (9.62-fold increase) of the novel variant.DiscussionThese findings suggest that the low initial burden caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was likely a result of enhanced restrictions to contain the movement of people and consequently, the spread of the disease. Easing public health restrictions (as measured by a decline in the BOC index) during periods of high transmissibility of circulating COVID-19 variants contributed to community spread, despite high levels of immunization in NS.

The impact of public transportation on the transmission of COVID-19 in Rwanda

“…Further investigation into the association between transit station mobility and COVID-19 cases demonstrated interesting insights. The epidemiological transmission of COVID-19 in Rwanda revealed a significant number of cases and deaths, with the highest numbers recorded and largest spikes in cases during the Delta variant period, which was similarly observed in South Africa ( 36 ) and Africa on a continental level ( 37 ), however, this was not the case in Canada ( 10 ) and Europe on a continental level ( 37 ), where the cases peaked during successive waves of Omicron and its sub-lineages (B.1.1.529, BA.4/0.5, XBB.1.5).…”

“…To remove seasonal aspects of the data, we selected the records of Rwanda on a seven-day basis. Martinez and Kelvin ( 10 ) compared mobility data gathered from distinct tech companies and conclude the data is highly correlated.…”

“…Moreover, recent studies have linked the impact of severe events such as the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with the mobility of people. Evidence has shown that periods of higher disease transmission and introductory events follow seasonal patterns related to individual movement patterns within a population ( 6 – 10 ). Thus, a method of controlling the spread of infections is achieved through the implementation of measures that restrict contact between individuals.…”

“…Globally, public health authorities implemented a wide range of transmission mitigation measures during early stages of the pandemic to control the spread of disease, including reduced social interaction, social distancing measures, masking policies, reduced public transportation, required isolation, and recommended hygiene practices, among others. Public adherence to these restrictions and governmental stringency are both implicated in determining the level of containment throughout the pandemic ( 10 , 17 , 18 ). Mobility research has largely focussed on the specific risks assigned to individual activities, such as school, work, leisure/travel, and interactions in these settings ( 19 ).…”

Convergence in Mobility Data Sets From Apple, Google, and Meta

“…For instance, it was suggested that the early introduction of the B.1.1.529 (ie, Omicron) SARS-CoV-2 variant in Mexico was facilitated by higher movement observed in the end-of-year celebrations [ 5 ]. Moreover, in Canada, a so-called successful pandemic management was attributed to the fact that the movement patterns of people were highly reduced during the initial waves of SARS-CoV-2 [ 6 ]. Higher transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in India was attributed to an urban exodus of city dwellers that had to return to their villages after lockdown policies were implemented [ 7 ].…”