Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, Alan M.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Bragg, Fran; Contoux, Camille; Stepanek, Christian; Sohl, Linda E.; Rosenbloom, Nan; Chan, Wing‐Le; Kamae, Youichi; Zhang, Zhongshi; Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Jost, Anne; Lohmann, Gerrit; Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.; Ramstein, Gilles; Ueda, Hiroaki

doi:10.5194/cp-10-79-2014

Cited by 64 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In response to the greenhouse-gas-driven warming seen in the Pliocene experiments (Hill et al, 2014), a general decrease is observed in genesis potential in the convergence zones in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres (Fig. 7, 8b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates

Koh

Brierley

2015

Clim. Past

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Abstract. The favourability of the mid-Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene for tropical cyclone formation is investigated in five climate models. This is measured by a genesis potential index, derived from large-scale atmospheric properties known to be related to storm formation. The mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were periods where carbon dioxide levels were higher and lower than preindustrial levels respectively, while the mid-Holocene differed primarily in its orbital configuration. The cumulative global genesis potential is found to be fairly invariant across the palaeoclimates in the multi-model mean. Despite this all ensemble members agree on coherent responses in the spatial patterns of genesis potential change.During the mid-Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity (a measure associated with maximum tropical cyclone strength) is calculated to be relatively insensitive to these changes. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis potential during the mid-Holocene are found to be asymmetric about the Equator: being reduced in the Northern Hemisphere but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality drove localised changes in genesis potential, by altering the strength of monsoons and shifting the intertropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis potential are consistent neither between the five models studied nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates

Koh

Brierley

2015

Clim. Past

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“…6a; e.g. Serreze and Barry, 2011;Hill et al, 2014), OVL effect dominates the meridional warming contrast. Note that CO 2 is the largest contributor to the global mean Pliocene warming (Sect.…”

Section: Regional Changes In Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Increasing albedo over North America middle latitude and eastern Siberia due to change in vegetation (boreal forest in modern but grassland in the Pliocene; Fig. 1; Haywood et al, 2013;Hill et al, 2014), a part of OVL effect, contributes to the regional difference in the SAT change (Figs. 5c, 7c).…”

Section: Regional Changes In Temperature and Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…6a) compared with the PlioMIP1 run. Hill et al (2014) evaluated the contributions of factors for the polar amplification by using eight PlioMIP1 models. Despite substantial inter-model spreads, strong warming due to reduced surface albedo was robustly found in all the models and relative contribution of meridional heat transport (due to the atmosphere and ocean) was minor.…”

Section: Mid-and High-latitude Warming and Meridional Heat Transportmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate simulations under the PlioMIP1 tended to underestimate the warming over the Northern Hemisphere middle and high latitudes Dowsett et al, 2012Dowsett et al, , 2013 although the latitudinal warming gradient was reproduced qualitatively. Hill et al (2014) pointed out a robust contribution of surface albedo due to changes in vegetation and ice sheets and ice-albedo feedbacks (sea ice and snow) to the warming amplifications over the polar regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions

2016

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Abstract. Accumulations of global proxy data are essential steps for improving reliability of climate model simulations for the Pliocene warming climate. In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2), a part project of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4, boundary forcing data have been updated from the PlioMIP phase 1 due to recent advances in understanding of oceanic, terrestrial and cryospheric aspects of the Pliocene palaeoenvironment. In this study, sensitivities of Pliocene climate simulations to the newly archived boundary conditions are evaluated by a set of simulations using an atmosphereocean coupled general circulation model, MRI-CGCM2.3. The simulated Pliocene climate is warmer than pre-industrial conditions for 2.4 • C in global mean, corresponding to 0.6 • C warmer than the PlioMIP1 simulation by the identical climate model. Revised orography, lakes, and shrunk ice sheets compared with the PlioMIP1 lead to local and remote influences including snow and sea ice albedo feedback, and poleward heat transport due to the atmosphere and ocean that result in additional warming over middle and high latitudes. The amplified higher-latitude warming is supported qualitatively by the proxy evidences, but is still underestimated quantitatively. Physical processes responsible for the global and regional climate changes should be further addressed in future studies under systematic intermodel and data-model comparison frameworks.

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Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic Multi-Model ensemble (MioMIP1)

Burls

Bradshaw

Boer

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03-5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75-14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model-data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO 2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO 2 , such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO 2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO 2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state-of-art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi-model, multi-proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community-led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.Plain Language Summary As human activity continues to increase atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, scientists turn to warm intervals in Earth's history to develop insight into the behavior of the climate system under elevated carbon dioxide and temperature. One such interval is the Miocene epoch which has become increasingly relevant as reconstructions of Miocene atmospheric CO 2 concentrations point to values ranging between current concentrations of ∼400 ppm and those projected for the end of this century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 4. In this study, we evaluate the BURLS ET AL.

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Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations

Cited by 64 publications

References 45 publications

Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates

Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates

Sensitivity of Pliocene climate simulations in MRI-CGCM2.3 to respective boundary conditions

Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic Multi-Model ensemble (MioMIP1)

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