Systematic sampling and analysis of wastewater is an increasingly used tool to complement more traditional techniques for assessing consumption of licit and illicit chemical substances in the population. The use of wastewater sampling and analysis contributes to a broader field that is referred to as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). Both spatial and temporal analysis can be conducted quantitatively, quickly and cost effectively using the WBE approach.In brief, per capita exposure to a given chemical within a population is estimated by measuring the concentration of that chemical or a metabolite in a representative wastewater sample multiplied by the volume of wastewater represented by the sample, divided by the population size from which the sample originates and correcting by factors such as the excretion factor of the metabolite or chemical, molecular weight change and potential stability of the chemical within the sewer. It has previously been determined that the population size is the largest uncertainty for WBE estimates.The aim of this thesis it to therefore identify useful markers that allow population estimation for a given wastewater sample and apply this technique including to assess per capita exposure/release of a group of chemicals that have not been examined in previous WBE studies.The approach for this thesis was to systematically collect samples on a day when the population is well defined. For this we collected samples on the 2011 Census Day in Australia from 10 wastewater catchments ranging in size from approximately 1,500 to 500,000 people. By providing catchment maps to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the accurate population size for each catchment was determined.The most obvious choice of a potentially useful population markers are endogenous chemicals such as creatinine. Therefore, in Chapter 2, creatinine was assessed as a population marker. It was found that there was no correlation between the mass load of creatinine in wastewater and the population. Using laboratory-scale sewer reactors with conditions representative of both gravity sewers and rising mains, it was found that creatinine, while stable in collected samples, is unstable under sewer conditions. We therefore conclude that creatinine is not suitable for predicting differences in population size particularly when different sewer systems are compared.
2In Chapter 3, a method was developed to quantify 96 chemicals in wastewater influent and applied to the census wastewater samples to identify potential population size markers. Thirteen chemicals including acesulfame, caffeine, and pharmaceuticals and personal care products were detected in all samples and found to have a good correlation (R 2 > 0.8) between mass load and population size. A Bayesian inference model was developed which incorporated these potential population size markers to provide a population size estimate. The model was validated using a leave-one-out approach for all sites and comparing the population size estimate from the model with the accur...