Evaluating Soil Threats Under Climate Change Scenarios in the Andalusia Region, Southern Spain

Abstract

European policies can be relevant to protect soils under climate change scenarios and therefore preserve the wide variety of functions and services provided by the soil. The European Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection will require member states to identify areas under risk from various soil threats and establish procedures to achieve sustainability. Five models Terraza, Cervatana, Sierra, Raizal, and Pantanal included in the Mediterranean Land Evaluation Information System decision support system packages were used to identify areas vulnerable to various soil threats under climate change scenarios in the Andalusia region. While Terraza and Cervatana forecast general land use capability for a broad series of possible agricultural uses, the Sierra model predicts forestry land suitability for the presence/absence of 22 typical Mediterranean forest species. Raizal and Pantanal models predict soil erosion vulnerability, contamination, and other processes. Interpretation of results in different scenarios allows quantifying the effects of climate change in terms of agricultural productivity, forestry land suitability, erosion, and contamination risks. The obtained results allow to identify detailed vulnerable areas and formulate site-specific management plans for soil protection. Climate change is expected to impact crop growth with a higher impact on summer crops (corn, sunflower, and cotton). The results show a potential opportunity for reforestation (Quercus spp.) in future climate scenarios, while other species such as Castanea sativa will not be suitable in the study area by 2070 and 2100. Soil contamination and erosion show only slight differences between the current and future scenario of climate change.

Short-time phosphorus losses by overland flow in burnt pine and eucalypt plantations in north-central Portugal: A study at micro-plot scale

“…This trend is expected to continue, especially since projections of future climate change foresee rising temperatures and increasing risks of drought spells in this fire-prone region (Anaya-Romero et al, 2015;Blake et al, 2010;Caon et al, 2014). While wildfires are a natural disturbance in many ecosystems, more frequent and more severe fires can offset the ecological balance of the ecosystem and have a significant negative impact on soil fertility, soil biological diversity as well as on the water cycle (Caon et al, 2014;Crouch et al, 2006;Malvar et al, 2015a).…”

Climate-Induced Shifts in Global Soil Temperature Regimes

“…Soil temperature regime maps are essential for accurate identification of soils and inventory of natural resources (Bai et al, 2010), providing an indispensable classification that, when superimposed on soil type classification, permits the precise interpretation and assessment of land use (Takata et al, 2011). Investigation of potential changes in soil temperature is important for the research of ecohydrological processes, resource development, and climate change (Anaya-Romero et al, 2015;Buendia et al, 2015;Cerdà, 2000Cerdà, , 1998Liu et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2015).…”

Reshaping the Sustainable Geographical Pattern: A Major Function Zoning Model and Its Applications in China

“…A particular area of interest has been the development and improvement of predictive simulation models, such as the agent-based model (Matthews et al, 2007;Yuan et al, 2017), the cellular automata model and its evolved models based on grid neighborhood relationship analysis (Grinblat et al, 2016;Van Vliet et al, 2017), or the dynamics of land system model and state-and-transition simulation model based on analyses of changes in land system structures and spatial configuration succession (Wilson et al, 2016;Daniel et al, 2016;Najmuddin et al, 2017). Using these simulation models, it is possible to construct rational scenarios for different sustainability objectives, such as maximizing economic effects (Wu et al, 2012), minimizing pollutant emissions or environmental impacts (Bohnes et al, 2017;Degraeuwe et al, 2017), prioritizing ecological security (Brunner et al, 2017;Eitelberg et al, 2016), limiting climate change and carbon emissions (Anaya-Romero et al, 2015;Prestele et al, 2017), as well as for other sustainability scenarios, such as water resources (Proskuryakova et al, 2018), agricultural production (Chaudhary et al, 2018;Krasa et al, 2010;Van Vliet et al, 2017), or environmental protection (Najmuddin et al,2017;Zarandian et al, 2017). Obviously, most of these models are based on historical or current scenarios, and they assume consistent historical trajectories and development statuses, which can be problematic for developing countries with large-scale and disorderly land development (Fan et al, 2018).…”