Evaluating Performance of Near-Term Influenza Forecasters Across Consecutive Seasons

Abstract

Near-term forecasting efforts for seasonal influenza (flu) aim to enable better public health preparedness before, during, and after each season. The FluSight initiative has fostered flu forecasting activities since 2013. In 2021-22, the organizers switched the primary target to incident weekly flu hospitalizations at state, territorial, and national levels in the United States. Here we studied the performance of contributors who submitted forecasts for this target during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. We found that forecasters generally did not perform consistently across locations within seasons. For the select group of forecasters who submitted to both seasons, the overall performance relative to one another was not always consistent either. However, several forecasters, including the FluSight ensemble, were among the top performers in both seasons.