Evaluating low flow patterns, drivers and trends in the Delaware River Basin

Hammond, John C.; Fleming, Brandon J.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126246

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…For each period analyzed, northeastern CONUS displayed declines in drought duration and deficit with corresponding increases in low flows, consistent with Dudley et al (2020) and Hammond and Fleming (2021). Our drought trend results for 1921-2020 are generally consistent with McCabe et al (2017), who found that drought frequency has mostly declined across CONUS from 1901 to 2014.…”

Section: Changes In Drought Through Timesupporting

confidence: 86%

“…This approach extends the use of the deficit metric used in the Chesapeake Watershed by Fleming et al. (2020) and the Delaware River Basin by Hammond and Fleming (2021), allowing for volumetric flow departure calculations not possible using standardized indices. Annual observed streamflow and modeled climate metrics for each gaged watershed are available from Hammond et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Monotonic trends were assessed using the Mann‐Kendall test with two different assumptions about the serial structure of the time‐series data: independence, which assumes no relation between consecutive years (INDE), and short‐term persistence (AR1), which inflates the variance computed under an assumption of independence (Hamed, 2008; Hamed & Rao, 1998). This latter method has been used for evaluations of trends in peak (Hodgkins et al., 2019) and low flow metrics (Dudley et al., 2020; Hammond & Fleming, 2021). For these trend analyses, we implemented our methods on three separate periods 1921–2020, 1951–2020, and 1981–2020.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Going Beyond Low Flows: Streamflow Drought Deficit and Duration Illuminate Distinct Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns and Trends in the U.S. During the Last Century

Hammond

Simeone

Hecht

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

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In recent decades, there has been increased attention on drought and the aridification of parts of the western contiguous United States (CONUS) (Bishop et al., 2021). The continually updated U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters data set (NOAA-NCEI, 2021;Smith & Katz, 2013) reports that droughts and heatwaves represent nearly a quarter of all long-term weather and climate disaster costs exceeding 1 billion dollars per event, and that vulnerability to these drought events has increased from 1980 to 2020. Droughts have wide ranging impacts on agriculture, water utilities, power generation, recreation and tourism, aquatic species, forest resources, public health and other sectors (Wlostowski et al., 2022). National scale streamflow studies have found increasing occurrences of streams with no flow in the southern and western CONUS (Zipper et al., 2021), decreases in the magnitude of the lowest flows in the southeastern and parts of western CONUS, and increases in the lowest flows in the northeastern and midwestern CONUS (Dethier et al., 2020;Dudley et al., 2020). Runoff reductions in future years for western regions of the CONUS are likely a result of projected precipitation decreases and temperature increases (McCabe & Wolock, 2021b), especially where the temperature increases lead to reductions in seasonal snowpack and water yield (Barnhart et al., 2016;McCabe et al., 2017;Milly & Dunne, 2020). These studies highlight the need for increased understanding of streamflow drought variability, trends, climatic, landscape and anthropogenic drivers.

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Section: Changes In Drought Through Timesupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Going Beyond Low Flows: Streamflow Drought Deficit and Duration Illuminate Distinct Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns and Trends in the U.S. During the Last Century

Hammond

Simeone

Hecht

et al. 2022

Water Resources Research

Self Cite

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“…As for rainfall, the impacts of warming generally result in increased rainfall in winter (increase in temperature) and in summer (increase in evapotranspiration) [6][7][8]. Despite numerous studies on the temporal variability of minimum flows in the context of global warming [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26], few have focused on analyzing the impacts of these changes in seasonal precipitation regimes on minimum flows. Furthermore, the impacts of global warming on minimum flows can be amplified or mitigated by land use, particularly agriculture, as observed in a number of watersheds in certain agricultural regions of the USA [13,27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Agricultural Areas on Spatio-Temporal Variability of Daily Minimum Extreme Flows during the Transitional Seasons (Spring and Fall) in Southern Quebec

Assani

Zeroual

Roy

et al. 2021

Water

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Several statistical methods were used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of daily minimum extreme flows (DMEF) in 17 watersheds—divided into three homogenous hydroclimatic regions of southern Quebec—during the transitional seasons (spring and fall), during the 1930–2019 period. Regarding spatial variability, there was a clear difference between the south and north shores of the St. Lawrence River, south of 47° N. DMEF were lower in the more agricultural watersheds on the south shore during transitional seasons compared to those on the north shore. A correlation analysis showed that this difference in flows was mainly due to more agricultural areas ((larger area (>20%) on the south than on the north shore (<5%)). An analysis of the long-term trend of these flows showed that the DMEF of south-shore rivers have increased significantly since the 1960s, during the fall (October to December), due to an increase in rainfall and a reduction in cultivated land, which increased the infiltration in the region. Although there was little difference between the two shores in the spring (April to June), we observed a decrease in minimum extreme flows in half (50%) of the south-shore rivers located north of 47° N.

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“…The benefits of using RF models include: (1) they allow for multiple predictors and non‐linear relationships which are common in hydrologic processes; (2) they are not limited by understanding and assumptions of catchment behaviour; (3) there is reduced risk of data overfitting through a robust ensemble and randomized approach; and (4) the interpretation of the influence of each explanatory variable using the increase in mean squared error (MSE) is straight‐forward (i.e., large increases in the MSE indicate influential predictors; Addor et al, 2018). Random forest techniques have proven useful in other hydrologic studies such as identifying drivers in minimum streamflows in the Delaware River Basin (Hammond & Fleming, 2021) and the control of climate and catchment processes on hydrological drought (Konapala & Mishra, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Groundwater recharge in northern New England: Meteorological drivers and relations with low streamflow

Crossett

Hodgkins

Menk

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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Meteorological drivers of groundwater recharge for spring (February–June), fall (October–January), and recharge‐year (October–June) recharge seasons were evaluated for northern New England and upstate New York from 1989 to 2018. Monthly groundwater recharge was computed at 21 observation wells by subtracting the water levels at the end of each month from the level of the previous month; only positive monthly values were used to compute seasonal recharge. Precipitation, temperature, sea‐level pressure, 500‐mb geopotential heights, and various teleconnection indices were tested as explanatory variables for the interannual variability of recharge using random forest machine learning models. Precipitation within recharge seasons was positively correlated with groundwater recharge for most wells in all seasons. In general, whilst groundwater recharge in the study area was generally highest during the months of March and April, October precipitation was an important month for explaining the interannual groundwater recharge variability. This is likely because the variability in recharge in October may be high or low for given years. Sea‐level pressure and 500‐mb heights were typically inversely correlated with groundwater recharge during the recharge‐year and fall recharge seasons, as higher sea‐level pressure and heights are usually associated with clearer skies and less precipitation. The North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific‐North American pattern, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation teleconnections affected groundwater recharge differently by well and season. The influence of groundwater recharge on minimum daily streamflows during the subsequent summer/fall was also analysed. Summer precipitation was the most important explanatory variable for study streams whilst groundwater recharge and summer air temperature were significant variables for a few streams.

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Evaluating low flow patterns, drivers and trends in the Delaware River Basin

Cited by 16 publications

References 67 publications

Going Beyond Low Flows: Streamflow Drought Deficit and Duration Illuminate Distinct Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns and Trends in the U.S. During the Last Century

Going Beyond Low Flows: Streamflow Drought Deficit and Duration Illuminate Distinct Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns and Trends in the U.S. During the Last Century

Impacts of Agricultural Areas on Spatio-Temporal Variability of Daily Minimum Extreme Flows during the Transitional Seasons (Spring and Fall) in Southern Quebec

Groundwater recharge in northern New England: Meteorological drivers and relations with low streamflow

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