Evaluating Flight Crew Performance by a Bayesian Network Model

Abstract

Flight crew performance is of great significance in keeping flights safe and sound. When evaluating the crew performance, quantitative detailed behavior information may not be available. The present paper introduces the Bayesian Network to perform flight crew performance evaluation, which permits the utilization of multidisciplinary sources of objective and subjective information, despite sparse behavioral data. In this paper, the causal factors are selected based on the analysis of 484 aviation accidents caused by human factors. Then, a network termed Flight Crew Performance Model is constructed. The Delphi technique helps to gather subjective data as a supplement to objective data from accident reports. The conditional probabilities are elicited by the leaky noisy MAX model. Two ways of inference for the BN-probability prediction and probabilistic diagnosis are used and some interesting conclusions are drawn, which could provide data support to make interventions for human error management in aviation safety.

Human Factors Analysis of Air Traffic Safety Based on HFACS-BN Model

“…Jitwasinkul et al, focusing on personal safety behavior, established the BN model to identify the most critical organizational factors that improve safety behavior [28]. Chen et al focused on the human error of flight crew behind aviation accidents [9], while Zhou et al focused on the safety awareness of airport staff [6]. Although these applications are in different settings, it can be concluded that BN can perform human factor and safety analysis, including prediction, diagnosis, decision making, and provide insight into the relationship between variables.…”

“…The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has been working to improve aviation safety and to apply the latest research on human factors to the global aviation industry. Investigators tend to analyze safety issues from a systematic perspective, including human and organizational factors as well as other factors [9]. In this context, the human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) emerged.…”

“…Daramola et al used the HFACS framework to investigate aviation accidents in Nigeria between 1985 and 2010 [16]. Chen et al used the HFACS framework and Bayesian network to analyze the human factors of crew members behind the aviation accident and evaluate their performance [9]. Zhou et al searched for human factors affecting aviation safety based on the framework of HFACS through the questionnaire survey of airport staff in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.…”

“…Through the above review, we found that the existing research can be further improved in the following aspects. First of all, the detailed information about the behavior of air traffic controllers obtained from the accident reports is relatively limited, such as the degree of ATC safety culture, the salary of controllers, whether the ATC supervision plan is complete, etc., which is more or less unavailable in the accident reports [9]. In addition, the reasons behind air accidents seem to be very complex, and the quantitative causal relationship between human factors is usually limited and highly uncertain.…”

Analysis of the Uncertainty in the relationship between Self-Determined Motivation and competitive Anxiety in dual-career students: Application of Information Theory and Bayesian Networks

“…One of the biggest problems faced by social sciences is the great difficulty in predicting human behavior. It can be thought that it is due to the large number of variables that influence them, but explanations have also been proposed within the framework of Information Theory (IT) and the entropy inherent in the development of closed and open systems, although they do not form part of the paradigm currently valid in psychological research [1][2][3]. In fact, the difficulties in assimilating the concept of "pure" information -beyond the extended use of the word "bit" -with the "processing" of information in psychology reveal that the approach is only superficial, since in reality the IT does not play any role.…”