Evaluating fire modelling systems in recent wildfires of the Golestan National Park, Iran

Jahdi, Roghayeh; Salis, Michele; Darvishsefat, A A; Alcasena, Fermín; Mostafavi, Mir Abolfazl; Etemad, V; Lozano, Olga M.; Spano, Donatella

doi:10.1093/forestry/cpv045

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…We identified high probability paths of incoming fire in central north and south east valley bottom flat areas [62,65], which were mainly located in neighboring municipalities 101 and 40. These two areas accounted for the bulk of the transmission as measured by the highest number of residential structures affected.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We conducted five different weather scenarios at 20-m resolution, with 10,000 wildfires per scenario ( Table 2). FlamMap uses the two-dimensional fire growth minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) [62], which has been widely used worldwide at a broad range of scales with multiple purposes [63][64][65][66]. The MTT algorithm replicates fire growth based on the Huygens' principle, where the growth and behavior of the fire edge is modeled as a vector or wavefront [62], and fire spread distance is predicted by the Rothermel's surface fire spread model [67].…”

Section: Wildfire Spread and Behavior Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Specifically, the conditional burn probability in the study area is the BP given that a fire ignites within the fire modeling domain and spreads for 6 hours at assumed fuel moisture and weather conditions (97th percentile fire weather). Fire intensity [68] is first predicted by the MTT algorithm [62] and is converted into flame length as: where FL is flame length (m) and I fireline intensity (kW·m −1 , kW = kilowatt). Then the program calculates a FLP regular point grid (at the fire simulation resolution) from the multiple burning fires at different flame lengths (i.e., backing, heading and flanking fire spread flame lengths).…”

Section: Wildfire Spread and Behavior Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Major flow-paths were obtained with the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) [62] considering the five most recurrent fire weather scenarios ( Table 2). The flow-path thickness indicates frequency and color indicates fire scenarios.…”

Section: Large Fire Initiation and Major Pathwaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although fires in eastern municipality 186 burned on average 15 FPI was calculated by combining the fire size and ignition probability output grids, and was used to identify the areas where the ignition of a large fire is more likely [31]. Major flow-paths were obtained with the minimum travel time algorithm (MTT) [62] considering the five most recurrent fire weather scenarios ( Table 2). The flow-path thickness indicates frequency and color indicates fire scenarios.…”

Section: Transmission Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

Alcasena

Salis

Ager

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain). Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306) in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile) historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km). Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%