Evaluating Differences in Harvest Data Used in the Sex-Age-Kill Deer Population Model

Mattson, Kimberly M.; Moritz, William E.

doi:10.2193/2006219

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Notably, vaccination is not justified by negative population-level effects of bovine TB on white-tailed deer. White-tailed deer are abundant: the estimated population in Michigan is 1.7 million (range 1.69-1.97 million, 2011-2013; Michigan Department of Natural Resources, unpublished data; estimation via sex-age kill; Mattson & Moritz 2008). Population-level TB mortality is minimal, and white-tailed deer are of economic and cultural, rather than conservation, significance (O'Brien et al 2006).…”

Section: Case Study: Planning For Vaccination In Michigan Usamentioning

confidence: 99%

Open questions and recent advances in the control of a multi‐host infectious disease: animal tuberculosis

2015

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Animal tuberculosis (TB) control is globally important for public health, economics and conservation. Wildlife species are often part of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) maintenance community, complicating TB control attempts. We describe the current knowledge on global TB distribution and the significance of wildlife hosts; identify insufficiently known aspects of host pathology, ecology and epidemiology; present selected time series in wildlife TB; and summarize ongoing research on TB control, providing additional insight on vaccination. Six specific research needs are identified and discussed, namely: 1) complete the world map of wildlife MTC reservoirs and describe the structure of each local MTC host community; 2) identify the origin and behaviour of generalized diseased individuals within populations, and study the role of factors such as co‐infections, re‐infections and individual condition on TB pathogenesis; 3) quantify indirect MTC transmission within and between species; 4) define and harmonize wildlife disease monitoring protocols, and apply them in a way that allows proper population and prevalence trend comparisons in both space and time; 5) carry out controlled and replicated wildlife TB control experiments using single intervention tools; 6) analyse cost‐efficiency and consider knowledge transfer aspects in promising intervention strategies. We believe that addressing these six points would push ahead our capacities for TB control. A remaining question is whether or not interventions on wildlife TB are at all justified. The answer depends on the local circumstances of each TB hotspot, and is likely to evolve during our collective progress towards TB control in livestock and in wildlife.

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Section: Case Study: Planning For Vaccination In Michigan Usamentioning

confidence: 99%

Open questions and recent advances in the control of a multi‐host infectious disease: animal tuberculosis

2015

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“…We modeled increases in hunter harvest as multiples of current harvest rates in DMU 452, estimated to be approximately 40% of antlered (yearling and adult bucks) and 16% of antlerless (fawns of both sexes, and yearling and adult does) deer per year by the sex-agekill method (Mattson and Moritz 2008). We evaluated 4 scenarios: 1) a 25% increase in both antlered and antlerless harvest; 2) a 50% increase in both antlered and antlerless harvest; 3) a doubling of both antlered and antlerless harvest; and 4) a doubling of antlered harvest and a tripling of antlerless harvest.…”

Section: Simulated Btb Control Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting eradication of bovine tuberculosis in Michigan white‐tailed deer

et al. 2014

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Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by Mycobacterium bovis infection in Michigan white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) has proven resistant to current management practices. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources (MDNR) is faced with managing a protracted bTB outbreak with shrinking economic resources, its initial control strategies approaching, or having reached, the limits of their effectiveness. Planning tools are needed to project the outbreak's future course and forecast the likely outcomes of proposed controls. We describe development of a spatially explicit, individual‐based stochastic simulation model of bTB in Michigan white‐tailed deer. We sought to 1) characterize whether eradication of bTB is possible by increasing hunter harvest or via vaccination, and how long it is likely to take to achieve eradication; 2) characterize the effect of concurrent deer baiting; and 3) assess the effect of baiting on the probability of bTB establishment in uninfected areas. Simulations indicated that current MDNR management strategies are unlikely to eradicate bTB from the core outbreak area's deer population within the next 30 years. A 50–100% increase (over current rates) of both antlered and antlerless deer harvest was required to achieve eradication if baiting was occurring, compared to only a 50% increase in harvest required if baiting was eliminated. Vaccination strategies required frequent application and high exposure rates (>90%) to achieve eradication, which baiting delayed. Simulations indicated that if bTB was eradicated from the core outbreak area, a single infected deer introduced into the area would be 8 times more likely to re‐establish bTB if baiting was occurring. The ability to forecast likely outcomes of disease management can be critical for wildlife managers to assess whether specific strategies are likely to be successful. Because current policy appears unlikely to achieve the stated goal of eradicating bTB from Michigan in the foreseeable future, reorienting the bTB program from eradication to controlling geographic spread and transmission to cattle may be more realistic goals. Spatial models such as ours are ideally suited to investigating spatial heterogeneity of disease transmission, and how transmission is influenced by aggregating factors such as baiting or supplemental feeding. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.

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“…Nevertheless, there are limitations to estimating abundance from SAK models including assumptions of stable age distributions and population growth (Millspaugh et al 2009). However, Mattson and Moritz (Mattson and Moritz 2008) found that combining archery and firearm harvest of while-tailed deer did not alter population trends despite violating the assumption of stable age distributions. While SAK models may be the only technique available to wildlife managers for estimating the abundance of harvested species, we encourage additional research to evaluate the effects of potential biases on estimates of abundance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…One population model used by agencies, including the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) are sex-age-kill (SAK) models (Creed et al 1984, Roseberry andWoolf 1991). SAK models are retroactive and dependent on accurate harvest data (Mattson and Moritz 2008). SAK models generally combines the age-at-harvest of males and females, combined with annual mortality and reproduction rates to calculate a preharvest population estimate (Creed et al 1984).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating bobcat (Lynx rufus) abundance in Wisconsin during 1981-2015

Roberts

Bauder

2020

Preprint

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Quantifying and estimating trends in wildlife abundance is critical for their management and conservation. Harvest-based indices are often used as a surrogate index for wildlife population. Sex-Age-Kill (SAK) models generally use the age-at-harvest of males and females, combined with annual mortality and reproduction rates to calculate a preharvest population estimate. We used and SAK model to estimate abundance for bobcats from 1981-2015. Pre-hunt population size ranged from approximately 1630-2148 during 1981-1995 after which the population increased to a maximum of 4439 in 2005 before declining to 2598 in 2013. Pre-hunt population size was highly correlated an index of abundance from winter track counts (r = 0.93).We found that the model, as currently implemented by WNDR, appears to provide an accurate trend of statewide bobcat abundance. SAK models more logistically feasible for long-term evaluations of population trends overbroad spatial extents than more intensive methods. While SAK models may be the only technique available to wildlife managers for estimating the abundance of harvested species, we encourage additional research to evaluate the effects of potential biases on estimates of abundance.

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Evaluating Differences in Harvest Data Used in the Sex-Age-Kill Deer Population Model

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Open questions and recent advances in the control of a multi‐host infectious disease: animal tuberculosis

Open questions and recent advances in the control of a multi‐host infectious disease: animal tuberculosis

Forecasting eradication of bovine tuberculosis in Michigan white‐tailed deer

Estimating bobcat (Lynx rufus) abundance in Wisconsin during 1981-2015

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