Evaluating Contemporary Crime Drop(s) in America, New York City, and Many Other Places

Baumer, Eric P.

doi:10.1080/07418825.2012.742127

Cited by 84 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…It has since become clear that this was not an isolated Swedish phenomenon, as can now be seen from the increasing focus on declining crime rates in the international research literature (e.g. Estrada, 1999;National Research Council, 2008;Aebi & Linde, 2010;Barker, 2010;Tseloni, Mailley, Farrell, & Tilley, 2010;Baumer & Wolff, 2014). Against this backdrop, it is standing to reason to ask whether the crime drop will continue in a longer term perspective or come to a halt.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: from historical descriptions to forecasting the future

Hofer

2014

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This article analyses 34 Swedish birth cohorts with regard to their participation in crime as measured by data from the convictions database maintained by Statistics Sweden. Most existing cohort studies are limited to one or a few cohorts. By contrast, the present study includes 34 cohorts, i.e. all persons born in Sweden between 1958 and 1991. The article discusses methodological problems associated with this type of approach and examines the possibility of making forecasts. The central results are that the number of males with a criminal record has decreased, whereas the number of females has remained fairly stable. Forecasts indicate that the cohorts' participation in crime will continue to decrease. Research and policy implications of the findings are outlined. It is proposed to introduce cohort statistics as a standard branch within regular criminal justice statistics.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: from historical descriptions to forecasting the future

Hofer

2014

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“…Although their results indicate that both developed and developing countries experienced a drop in crime, their study did not assess whether homicide, which is widely considered the most reliable indicator of crime in cross-national research (LaFree & Tseloni, 2006), also dropped during this time. Furthermore, the ICVS samples from developing countries are drawn from a single city within that country, which is problematic as crime trends within a particular city may not be representative of national trends (Baumer & Wolff, 2014).…”

Section: Literature Review: the 1990s Crime Declinementioning

confidence: 99%

The 1990s Homicide Decline

2016

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Recent studies suggest that the United States was not the only country that experienced a drop in crime in the 1990s. However, this line of research is largely limited to a small number of developed countries and only recently has explored the extent to which homicide rates dropped in developing countries during this time. This study addresses these limitations by using group-based trajectory modeling to explore homicide trends from 1990 to 2005 in 53 developed and developing countries. The results indicate that while most countries experienced downward trends in homicide during this time, this trend was neither universal nor randomly distributed.

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“…After a period of volatility during the 1980s, rates of homicide, robbery, and motor vehicle theft 4 exhibited substantial declines beginning in the early 1990s (Baumer and Wolff 2014a). These patterns appear to hold for both Uniform Crime Report (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey data and exhibit little variation when disaggregated by gender and race/ethnicity (Lauritsen and Heimer 2010).…”

Section: Approaches To Understanding the Decline In Crimementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Baumer and Wolff (2014a) classify explanations into three categories: those that focus on 1) changes in the propensity to offend, 2) changes in the prevalence of motivated offenders or constraints on 5 potential offenders, and 3) changes in the prevalence of situations or settings (physical or social) that facilitate or impede crime. Propensity arguments focus on cohort-based conditions that may have resulted in decreases in predispositions to offend among youth and young adults during the period of the crime decline.…”

Section: Approaches To Understanding the Decline In Crimementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Much remains unknown about the underlying social conditions that are driving the decline of both demographic trends (Baumer and Wolff 2014a; Lauritsen and Heimer 2010; McCall et al 2010; Santelli and Melnikas 2010). And perhaps more importantly, we do not know if the same distal factors that are responsible for the drop in the crime rate are similarly implicated in falling rates of teen births.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Declines in Crime and Teen Childbearing: Identifying Potential Explanations for Contemporaneous Trends

2016

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Objectives The previous 25 years have witnessed remarkable upheavals in the social landscape of the United States. Two of the most notable trends have been dramatic declines in levels of crime as well as teen childbearing. Much remains unknown about the underlying conditions that might be driving these changes. More importantly, we do not know if the same distal factors that are responsible for the drop in the crime rate are similarly implicated in falling rates of teen births. We examine four overarching potential explanations: fluctuations in economic opportunity, shifting population demographics, differences in state-level policies, and changes in expectations regarding health and mortality. Methods We combine state-specific data from existing secondary sources and model trajectories of violent crime, homicides, robberies, and teen fertility over a 20-year period from 1990 to 2010 using simultaneous fixed-effects regression models. Results We find that 4 of the 21 predictors examined - growth in the service sector of the labor market, increasing racial diversity especially among Hispanics, escalating levels of migration, and the expansion of family planning services to low-income women – offer the most convincing explanations for why rates of violent crime and teen births have been steadily decreasing over time. Moreover, we are able to account for almost a quarter of the joint declines in violent crime and teen births. Conclusions Our conclusions underscore the far reaching effects that aggregate level demographic conditions and policies are likely to have on important social trends that might, at first glance, seem unrelated. Furthermore, the effects of policy efforts designed to target outcomes in one area are likely to spill over into other domains.

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Evaluating Contemporary Crime Drop(s) in America, New York City, and Many Other Places

Cited by 84 publications

References 64 publications

Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: from historical descriptions to forecasting the future

Crime and reactions to crime in 34 Swedish birth cohorts: from historical descriptions to forecasting the future

The 1990s Homicide Decline

Declines in Crime and Teen Childbearing: Identifying Potential Explanations for Contemporaneous Trends

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