Evaluating climate changes and land use changes on water resources using hybrid Soil and Water Assessment Tool‐DEEP optimized by metaheuristics

Abstract

The objective of this research is to investigate the effect of land-use and climate change on the volume of runoff produced and its impact on water resources. It is clear that the more accurate the assessment of runoff in the future, the better the evaluation of the impact of land-use and climate changes on water resources. Thus, to more accurately predict water sources in the future, runoff is estimated using two Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and SWAT-DEEP-IFSO models. The results showed that the SWAT-DEEP-IFSO model has a better estimation than the SWAT method. Because Deep Belief Network and an improved optimization algorithm called Improved Fluid Search Optimization (IFSO) algorithm have been utilized in optimizing the hybrid SWAT model that can reduce the error of runoff simulation. After selecting the best model for estimating runoff, the effect of land-use and climate change is evaluated using different scenarios. Results show that the simulated runoff under the influence of climate and land-use changes can impact on the average yearly and monthly runoff. These factors have a significant effect on the average yearly runoff changes and are predicted an increasing trend for average yearly runoff. But climate and land-use changes have a different impact on the different months and for some months of the year the runoff has an increasing trend and for some months the runoff has a decreasing trend. Based on land-use scenarios, it is found that due to the decrease in rangelands and increase in agricultural lands, there is a possibility of severe floods and drought periods in the region, which reduces the water resources of the study area. K E Y W O R D S deep belief network, fluid search optimization algorithm, runoff, soil and water assessment tool, water resource 1 INTRODUCTION Today, all climate scientists agree that global warming causes important climatic phenomena and due to climate changes, the probability of heavy rainfall and flood risk has been increased. 1 Global warming dramatically affects rainfall characteristics, soil moisture, water levels of the seas and oceans, and airflow patterns. Also, it can cause severe floods and storms and reduce glaciers. Reducing snowfall and rain and increasing drought, thereby increasing soil salinity and reducing freshwater resources in coastal areas can be another result of global warming. 2 One of the effects of climate change can be seen in renewables resources such as water resources which have different impacts from point-to-point. This effect of

How Climate Literacy and Public Opinion Are the Driving Forces Behind Climate-Based Policy: A Student Perspective on COP27

“…The feasibility of these approaches hinges on a substantial amount of technological development and capital investment in current and emergent technologies . Global climate finance flows are currently around $650 billion per year, but in order to achieve the 2030 goals from the Paris Agreement (50% decrease in GHG emissions), annual flows will need to reach $4.5–5 trillion. , Consequently, it is important to evaluate the likelihood and magnitude of each individual tactic and assess its potential impact on a sector-by-sector basis. , Analytical tools for detailed climate prediction models including life cycle analysis, , emissions trackers, − and soil and water assessments , are currently being utilized in an enormous amount of peer-reviewed literature. It is noteworthy to mention that the impact of mitigation strategies can be significant but are not all positive.…”

“…6 , 7 Consequently, it is important to evaluate the likelihood and magnitude of each individual tactic and assess its potential impact on a sector-by-sector basis. 4 , 5 Analytical tools for detailed climate prediction models including life cycle analysis, 8 , 9 emissions trackers, 10 − 12 and soil and water assessments 13 , 14 are currently being utilized in an enormous amount of peer-reviewed literature. It is noteworthy to mention that the impact of mitigation strategies can be significant but are not all positive.…”