Evaluating Causal Psychological Models: A Study of Language Theories of Autism Using a Large Sample

Abstract

Many of the psychological theories that attempt to explain key behavioral features of autism have histories that go back decades. The psychological literature around autism is primarily descriptive, and we propose that the field will generate the greatest traction when empirical work is designed to evaluate theories. Using a large-scale convenience dataset, we formalized as statistical models several theoretical claims around language/communicative theories of autism, as well as those of directly competing theories that posit primary roles of abstraction/prediction abilities and social abilities. The statistical evidence developed speaks against language/communicative theories of autism. We draw from historical analysis of the autism psychology literature, classic and recent “theoretical reform” efforts in the philosophy of psychology, as well as causal statistical modeling approaches to reflect on limitations of the current work and to design a strategy for enhanced traction. In addition to careful explication and formalization of theoretical accounts, we propose three principles for future work: specification, quantification, and integration. Specification refers to constraining models with pre-existing data, both within and outside autism research, with more elaborate models and more veridical measures, and with longitudinal data collection. Quantification refers to using continuous measures of both psychological causes and effects, as well as weighted graphs. It avoids “universality and uniqueness” assumptions that a single cognitive difference would be responsible for a heterogeneous and complex behavioral phenotype. Integration of multiple explanatory paths within a single model helps the field examine for multiple contributors to a single behavioral feature or to multiple behavioral features. It also allows integration of explanatory theories across multiple current-day diagnoses and as well as typical development.

Evaluating Causal Psychological Models: A Study of Imitation Theories of Autism Using a Large Sample

“…Consistent with prior work (Tang et al, 2022), the Symbolism construct was generated as the first principal component derived from Verbal Language, Non-Verbal Communication and…”

“…Similarly to a prior work (Tang et al, 2022), we used Release 5 (December 2020) of the SPARK dataset. This release included data from a total of 283,520 individuals, of which 94,116 were <18 years of age and either diagnosed with ASD or siblings of autistic individuals ("Sibs").…”

“…Following literature review around causal theories of ASD that propose imitation as a primitive alteration or mediator of other causal effects, the investigator team reviewed data items collected in this release, in conjunction with other work using this dataset (Tang et al, 2022). We used items from the several instruments: the Repetitive Behaviors Scale-Revised (RBS-R) (Lam & Aman, 2007) (ASD only), the SCQ (Rutter et al, 2003), Basic Medical Screening, Background History-Child (ASD only), the Background History-Sibling (Sib only).…”

“…At time of the data release used here, the dataset had registered over 71,000 individuals with ASD and a total of over 283,000 individuals (also including autism parents and siblings). As in prior work examining language-relate theories (Tang et al, 2022), the broad approach in this analysis was to identify items within the dataset's questionnaires that reflect psychological constructs relevant to theories of imitation and then identify theories from the literature that are evaluable using constructs present in the dataset.…”

“…Their work built on that of Stern (Stern, 1985), who unified aspects of Developmental Psychology and Psychoanalysis to offer a view on the development of the differentiation of the self from the outside world, as well as correspondences between the self and other agents, with Rogers and Pennington suggesting a primary role of imitation in autisticrelated alterations of this process . They also posited imitation as underlying the development of the "symbolic self," as expressed via language and pretend play (for earlier literature merging language and imaginative play under a notion of symbolism, see (Tang et al, 2022)). The performance of imitation, under this theory, also leads to the development of joint attention and thereby social engagement.…”