Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations

Abstract

The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public.However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure and high altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model [Newell et al., 2014] was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30-minute forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002.Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp=8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION-Prime 2013 tends to under-predict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1 -6, while probabilities of over 90% are over-predicted.

Ionospheric Boundaries Derived From Auroral Images

“…Mooney et al (2020) used the data set to study the spatio-temporal variation of the OCB through the substorm cycle. They followed up this work by using the IMAGE boundary data to evaluate auroral forecasts (Mooney et al, 2021). Recently, Hoque et al ( 2021) have used the data set to evaluate convection reversal boundaries measured by the SuperDARN radars.…”

“…(2020) used the data set to study the spatio‐temporal variation of the OCB through the substorm cycle. They followed up this work by using the IMAGE boundary data to evaluate auroral forecasts (Mooney et al., 2021). Recently, Hoque et al.…”

“…In this paper, we present boundaries derived from the Far UltraViolet (FUV) imagers on the Imager for Magnetopause‐to‐Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft (Mende, Heetderks, Frey, Lampton, Geller, Habraken, et al., 2000). The Northern Hemisphere IMAGE epoch has proved an extremely good data set for studies of space weather (Boakes et al., 2009, 2011; Frey et al., 2004; Milan, 2009; Milan et al., 2009; Mooney et al., 2020, 2021). Longden et al.…”

“…In this paper, we present boundaries derived from the Far UltraViolet (FUV) imagers on the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft (Mende, Heetderks, Frey, Lampton, Geller, Habraken, et al, 2000). The Northern Hemisphere IMAGE epoch has proved an extremely good data set for studies of space weather (Boakes et al, 2009(Boakes et al, , 2011Frey et al, 2004;Milan, 2009;Milan et al, 2009;Mooney et al, 2020Mooney et al, , 2021. Longden et al (2010) presented a reliable, automated method to estimate the location of Poleward Auroral Luminosity Boundaries (PALBs) and Equatorward Auroral Luminosity Boundaries (EALBs) in IMAGE FUV measurements.…”

Small Satellite Mission Concepts for Space Weather Research and as Pathfinders for Operations

“…Real‐time imaging products to fulfill forecasting or nowcasting needs would almost certainly require large constellations to enable large‐area measurements with low latency, an ideal application of SmallSats. To fill the gap in the meantime, models such as OVATION‐Prime do exist, but do not capture the full complexity of true auroral dynamics (Mooney et al., 2021). Single‐point pathfinding measurements can provide benchmarks against which such models can be tested and improved.…”