Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Borlase, Anna; Rutte, Epke A. Le; Castaño, María Soledad; Blok, David J.; Toor, Jaspreet; Giardina, Federica; Davis, Emma L; Aliee, Maryam; Anderson, Roy M.; Ayabina, Diepreye; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Blumberg, Seth; Rivera, Rocio Caja; Chitnis, Nakul; Coffeng, Luc E.; Davis, Chris; Deiner, Michael; Diggle, Peter J.; Fronterrè, Claudio; Giorgi, Emanuele; Graham, Matthew M.; Hamley, Jonathan I. D.; Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre; Keeling, Matt J.; Kura, Klodeta; Lietman, Thomas M.; Malizia, Veronica; Medley, Graham; Michael, Edwin; Thumbi, Samuel M.; Mutono, Nyamai; Porco, Travis C.; Prada, Joaquín M.; Rock, Kat S.; Sharma, Swarnali; Spencer, Simon E. F.; Stolk, Wilma A.; Touloupou, Panayiota; Vasconcelos, Andreia; Vegvari, Carolin; Vlas, Sake J. de

doi:10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00360-6

Cited by 19 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…While the delays due to COVID-19 to some national programs have not been considered here, recent work suggests that the consequences might be limited, particularly if activities can be resumed quickly [ 13 , 36 , 37 ]. Undoubtedly, programs will be facing many challenges in the coming years, including reduced domestic revenues, cuts to funding from donors, and changes in transmission linked to climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

Touloupou,

Fronterre,

Cano

et al. 2024

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. Methods We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. Results Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. Conclusions While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the “tail” of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

Touloupou,

Fronterre,

Cano

et al. 2024

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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“…Sleeping sickness is a neglected tropical disease that has remained a global disease burden targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 [289]. However, the interruption in both active and passive screening, especially in countries like the DRC, which currently present the highest number of cases, is likely to affect the predicted elimination time according to prediction models [289,290]. Despite positive strides made by the WHO, non-governmental agencies, and researchers, the COVID-19 pandemic created a major setback.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tackling Sleeping Sickness: Current and Promising Therapeutics and Treatment Strategies

Jamabo,

Mahlalela,

Edkins

et al. 2023

IJMS

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Human African trypanosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the extracellular protozoan parasite Trypanosoma brucei, and targeted for eradication by 2030. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the lengthening of the proposed time frame for eliminating human African trypanosomiasis as control programs were interrupted. Armed with extensive antigenic variation and the depletion of the B cell population during an infectious cycle, attempts to develop a vaccine have remained unachievable. With the absence of a vaccine, control of the disease has relied heavily on intensive screening measures and the use of drugs. The chemotherapeutics previously available for disease management were plagued by issues such as toxicity, resistance, and difficulty in administration. The approval of the latest and first oral drug, fexinidazole, is a major chemotherapeutic achievement for the treatment of human African trypanosomiasis in the past few decades. Timely and accurate diagnosis is essential for effective treatment, while poor compliance and resistance remain outstanding challenges. Drug discovery is on-going, and herein we review the recent advances in anti-trypanosomal drug discovery, including novel potential drug targets. The numerous challenges associated with disease eradication will also be addressed.

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“…NTD interventions were some of the health services most severely affected by the pandemic, due to both direct impacts on service delivery as well as indirect impacts including resource re-allocation [ 18 , 19 ]. While WHO and the NTD Modelling Consortium have previously collaborated to determine how COVID-19–related disruptions impacted NTD programs and to estimate how different strategies could assist in program recovery [ 9 , 18 ], the meeting highlighted several additional areas that require further studies. For example, participants discussed how modeling may help estimate when visceral leishmaniasis (VL) outbreaks could occur due to COVID-19–related program interruptions, and to assess how trachoma elimination has been affected by the pandemic's impact on availability of medicines, which caused missed rounds and reduced coverage of mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns.…”

Section: Meetingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…WHO specifically engaged the NTD modeling community during the open consultation on the development of the 2021–2030 road map to gain insight into the achievability, measurability, and feasibility of the 2030 targets with current tools, and the identification of risks to be mitigated [ 8 ]. More recently, WHO and the NTD Modelling Consortium ( https://www.ntdmodelling.org/ ) collaborated to project the impact of disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on NTD programs and to estimate the impact of remedial strategies that could help such programs get back on track [ 9–18 ].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Vasconcelos,

King,

Nunes-Alves

et al. 2024

Clinical Infectious Diseases

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Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021–2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

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Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Cited by 19 publications

References 43 publications

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

Tackling Sleeping Sickness: Current and Promising Therapeutics and Treatment Strategies

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

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