Evaluating a Model of Snow Cover Area versus Runoff against a Concurrent Flow Correlation Model in the Western Himalayas

Abstract

This study evaluates the estimates of seasonal snowmelt runoff in the Sutlej, Indus, Kabul and Chenab rivers derived from the model of snow cover area vs. runoff against those obtained from cross correlation of concurrent flows in the rivers. The concurrent flow correlation model explains more than 90 percent of the variability in flow of these rivers. Compared to this model, the model of snow-cover area vs. runoff explains less of the variability in flow. However, unlike the snow-cover model, the concurrent flow correlation model cannot be used for operational forecasting procedures. Where the strength of correlation is high, the concurrent flow correlation model has potential for use in retrospective analysis of flow for estimating missing data, extending time series and for evaluating estimates derived from other models. In the Himalayan basins under study and at least for the period under observation, the concurrent flow correlation model provides a set of results with which to compare the estimates from the snow cover model.

Linear or Nonlinear Covariance of Seasonal Snowmelt and Snow Cover in Western Himalayas

“…Acceptance of these two transformed linear regressions would, however, require explanation of the functional relationship between snowmelt and snow cover area by two hypotheses. Such a proposition does not appear to be consistent with reality since the Himalayan watersheds reportedly are characteristic of innate concurrent flow conditions during the melt season (Dey and Goswami 1984).…”

Assessment of Snow‐Covered Areas Using Air Temperatures During Melt in a Mountainous Basin

“…These simple relationships worked well for some applications and particularly in data-sparse regions of the world. Estimation of daily snow melt runoff in the Himalayan river basins using satellite-derived SCA is being increasingly recognized as an immensely useful procedure in water resources research and management (Rango et al 1977;Ramamoorthi and Subba Rao 1981;Gupta et al 1982;Dey et al 1983Dey et al , 1989Dey and Goswami 1984;Jain 2001). The prediction of snow melt induced runoff in the Himalayan rivers has a great potential for application in irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic and industrial water supply.…”

Effect of warmer climate on the depletion of snow-covered area in the Satluj basin in the western Himalayan region

“…Gupta et al (1982) reported that the snow-covered area and the subsequent snowmelt runoff in various sub-catchments in the Himalayan region are found to be well correlated. Later, snow-covered area was used for daily runoff simulation (Dey & Goswami, 1984;Dey et al, 1989;Jain, 2001). Singh & Jain (2002) used snow-covered area to estimate the contribution from snowmelt runoff to annual flows using a water balance approach.…”