Evacuee Perception of Geophysical Hazards for Hurricane Irma

Abstract

Hurricane Irma was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history before landfall and caused a large evacuation. A total of 155 evacuees at interstate rest areas were asked to rank their concern about damage at their residence for six different geophysical hurricane hazards. Additionally, they were asked about their perceived maximum wind speeds (PMWS) and the wind speeds at which they thought damage would occur (DW) at their residence. These wind speeds were then compared to the actual peak wind gusts (APG) nearest to each resident’s location. Results show a significantly greater concern for wind and storm size, compared to other hazards (tornadoes, rainfall/flooding, storm surge, falling trees). The mean PMWS of evacuees was greater than the mean APG, suggesting widespread misperception of wind speeds. Furthermore, the mean APG was less than the mean DW, and the mean PMWS was also higher than the DW. Additional tests found no significant differences in wind perception between residents with previous storm experiences and no experience, and no significant differences between those who resided in mandatory evacuation zip codes and those who did not. These results suggest that wind speed risk is poorly understood, even though it is a high concern for evacuees from hurricanes. The communication of wind speed risk in forecasts should possibly be modified by placing greater emphasis on postlandfall impacts, wind speed decay after landfall, and wind speeds that cause damage to different types of residences.

Geophysical and Social Influences on Evacuation Decision-Making: The Case of Hurricane Irma

“…This study also added knowledge to the understanding of why some people may decide not to follow an evacuation order, further supporting prior research results within the field of disaster sociology [9,49,50]. First, among those with prior evacuation experience, half chose to stay home and shelter in place during Irma.…”

“…Areas with mobile homes, especially those in flood zones, are at a high risk to be destroyed not only by high winds, but also storm surge. Senkbeil et al examined individual perceptions of geophysical vulnerability during a hurricane evacuation [9]. Respondents at Interstate rest stops along an evacuation route were asked to rank their level of concern about how much damage they believed their homes might sustain.…”

“…As stated previously, this study examines evacuation behavior within the context of geophysical and social vulnerability assessed at the level of the individual. Since 2005 and Hurricane Katrina, a growing body of literature points to a paradigm shift toward the importance of understanding individual perceptions as informing one's construction of disaster risk and the decision to evacuate [8][9][10]. As Kusenbach and Christmann posit, " .…”

Hurricane Risk Perceptions and Evacuation Decision-Making in the Age of COVID-19

“…While research relating to hurricane evacuation behavior and risk perception has grown throughout the years (Baker 1979(Baker , 1991(Baker , 1995Brinkley 2006;Buckle 2006;Collins et al 2017Collins et al , 2018Dash and Gladwin 2007;Demuth et al 2012;Cutter 1998, 2000;Dynes 2002;Eisenman et al 2007;Elder et al 2007;Gladwin et al 2001;Haines et al 2002;Miller 2007;Moore et al 2004;Morss et al 2016;Riad and Norris 1998;Senkbeil et al 2019;Sherman-Morris et al 2011;Whitehead et al 2000), there is very little understanding of how COVID-19 will impact people's evacuation decisions. Much of the population has had no prior experience dealing with pandemics and hurricane evacuations before this season (2020).…”

The Influence of Tornado Activity, Impact, Memory, and Sentiment on Tornado Perception Accuracy among College Students

“…It was first mentioned as a problem for hurricane evacuees who may return home to find damage that was much greater or less than what was forecast to occur [6]. Perception accuracy was evaluated in real time using forecast and actual landfall locations [7], and hurricane hazards at landfall [8,9]. It has also been further evaluated in the role of evacuation decision making using hypothetical scenarios [10,11], and also co-evaluated with optimism bias and hurricane track forecast consistency [12].…”