European spring and autumn temperature variability and change of extremes over the last half millennium

Abstract

We evaluate variability, trends, uncertainties, and change of extremes of reconstructed and observed European spring and autumn temperature back to 1500. Spring and autumn temperature experienced systematic century‐scale cooling compared to present conditions. The coldest springs appeared during the Maunder Minimum (ΔT = −1 K wrt 1901–2000). The amplitude of spring temperature variations at decadal and multidecadal scales doubles that of autumn and is most expressed in northeastern Europe. The decade 1995–2004 was very likely the warmest of the last half millennium. Anomalously warm springs and autumns have generally become more extreme in recent decades. However, the recent changes are statistically not significant with respect to the pre‐industrial period.

The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and "climate migration"

“…One purported advantage is the inclusion of longrange correlation structures, leading to predictive skill even at locations where no data is available for the past (Smerdon et al, 2011). Thus, even while these studies did not use predictors from Ireland, validation measures in these studies do indeed indicate skill for our area of interest (Luterbacher et al, 2004;Xoplaki et al, 2005;Pauling et al, 2006). Recently, it has been shown that even without explicitly including teleconnection patterns, reconstructions can still be skilful outside the area with good data coverage in the past (Werner et al, 2013).…”

“…During the winter of 1739-1740 Europe experienced very low temperatures. In Central and Eastern Europe the temperatures were 3-4 • C lower than in the reference period of 1961-1990(Luterbacher et al, 2004Xoplaki et al, 2005). Most parts of Southern Europe and the whole northwest also experienced lower temperatures ( Fig.…”

“…4.1 is an in-depth analysis of pre-famine vulnerability; in Sect. 4.2, using temperature and precipitation reconstructions from Luterbacher et al (2004Luterbacher et al ( , 2007, Xoplaki et al (2005) and Pauling et al (2006), we describe climate conditions in Ireland between 1739 and 1741; Sect. 4.3 looks at the impacts on, and coping strategies of, Irish society; finally, Sect.…”

“…We use the seasonal temperature and precipitation reconstructions for Ireland by Luterbacher et al (2004Luterbacher et al ( , 2007, Xoplaki et al (2005) and Pauling et al (2006). In Fig.…”

“…4.3 and 4.4). Luterbacher et al (2004Luterbacher et al ( , 2007 and Xoplaki et al (2005). The figure was plotted using the KNMI Climate Explorer.…”