EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset 2.0

Abstract

Aims This paper presents a H2020 project aimed at developing the world’s most advanced space weather forecasting tool, combining the MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) solar wind and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) evolution modelling with Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) transport and acceleration model(s). The EUHFORIA 2.0 project will address the geoeffectiveness of impacts and mitigation to avoid (part of the) damage, including that of extreme events, related to solar eruptions, solar wind streams, and SEPs, with particular emphasis on its application to forecast Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) and radiation on geospace. Methods We will apply innovative methods and state-of-the-art numerical techniques to extend the recent heliospheric solar wind and CME propagation model EUHFORIA with two integrated key facilities that are crucial for improving its predictive power and reliability, namely 1) data-driven flux-rope CME models, and 2) physics-based, self-consistent SEP models for the acceleration and transport of particles along and across the magnetic field lines. This involves the novel coupling of advanced space weather models. In addition, after validating the upgraded EUHFORIA/SEP model, it will be coupled to existing models for GICs and atmospheric radiation transport models. This will result in a reliable prediction tool for radiation hazards from SEP events, affecting astronauts, passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft, and the impact of space weather events on power grid infrastructure, telecommunication, and navigation satellites. Finally, this innovative tool will be integrated into both the Virtual Space Weather Modeling Centre (VSWMC, ESA) and the space weather forecasting procedures at the ESA SSCC in Uccle (Belgium), so that it will be available to the space weather community and effectively used for improved predictions and forecasts of the evolution of CME magnetic structures and their impact on Earth. Results The results of the first six months of the EU H2020 project are presented here. These concern alternative coronal models, the application of adaptive mesh refinement techniques in the heliospheric part of EUHFORIA, alternative flux-rope CME models, evaluation of data-assimilation based on Karman filtering for the solar wind modelling, and a feasibility study of the integration of SEP models.

Machine learning for predicting the Bz magnetic field component from upstream in situ observations of solar coronal mass ejections

“…A traditional way of approaching the B z problem is to simulate the propagation of ICMEs with MHD codes. Examples are SUSANOO-CME (Shiota & Kataoka, 2016), AWSoM-SWMF (Jin et al, 2017), MAS (Török et al, 2018), and EUHFORIA (Poedts et al, 2020). These MHD codes include the magnetic flux rope structure and simulate the ICME evolution from near the Sun into interplanetary space.…”

“…One promising research avenue to tackle the B z problem focuses on solving the three-dimensional equation of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). Examples for MHD codes that incorporate the CME magnetic field structure are SUSANOO-CME (Shiota & Kataoka, 2016), AWSoM-SWMF (Jin et al, 2017), MAS (Török et al, 2018) and EU-HFORIA (Poedts et al, 2020). Although a full physical description is desirable, solving the B z problem with MHD codes is challenging, as will be discussed later.…”

Effects of mesh topology on MHD solution features in coronal simulations

“…The domain is extended sufficiently outwards in the direction normal to the solar surface to allow the flow to become supersonic. In our application, this interface is also set according to the requirements of coupling with the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) code (Poedts 2020) which is establishing itself as a standard tool in Europe for space weather predictions Scolini et al 2018Scolini et al , 2019. The domain that has to be simulated is therefore a sphere of radius of roughly 21R Sun with a spherical cut-out in the middle with a radius of R Sun .…”

Theoretical Refinements to the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation Technique and Application to in-situ Measurements

“…The structure and properties of these CIRs has been explored and reproduced with a reasonably-high degree of fidelity over the years with increasingly sophisticated numerical models [e.g. (Pizzo, 1978;Pizzo and Gosling, 1994;Riley et al, 2001;Riley et al, 2012;Shiota et al, 2014;Riley et al, 2019;Poedts et al, 2020;Poirier et al, 2020;Réville et al, 2020)].…”