European freight rolling stock fleet size in 2050 in light of the Transport White Paper 2011

Abstract

The European Transport White Paper 2011 sets high modal shift targets from road freight to rail 50% by 2050. The objective of this paper is to determine the rolling stock fleet size and type up to the year 2050 and associated challenges for stakeholders. Considering the White paper targets, three scenarios are considered; a) Business as usual or Reference Scenarioextrapolation of current trends without major policy change; b) White Paper 2011 Low Scenario (WPL) based on a partial implementation of the modal shift targets and c) White Paper 2011 High Scenario (WPH) based on the full implementation of modal shift targets. To determine the future fleet size, the current paper also conducts a sensitivity analysis assuming 60% productivity level as a base line. The study finds, among others, that significantly more rolling stock (in particular flat wagons, covered wagons and covered hopper wagons) as well as improved asset utilisation will be vital to facilitate the transport of increased freight volume. Unified rail freight system starting with nine Rail Freight Corridors and cooperation among the rail freight operators, wagons manufacturers and companies involved in leasing and hiring wagons will be very important to achieve the modal shift.

Organisation of railway freight transport: case study CIM/SMGS between Slovakia and Ukraine

“…Islam and Eidhammer [11] explored Pan-European and international rail freight services. Other recent examples of such a research include CREAM [5], RETRACK [17], Islam et al [14] and Islam et al [13]. The CREAM [5] study, co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme, contained a number of technological and operational research and development activities identified by the stakeholders, who comprised rail infrastructure operators, railway operators, intermodal operators and their customers.…”

“…The RETRACK [17] study, co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme, aimed to contribute to the Commission's aspirations of a modal shift of freight traffic from road to rail with a market share of 15 % by 2020 to achieve a commercial viability and contribute to sustainable mobility. Islam et al [13] conducted research to determine future (2030 and 2050) fleet size and found, among others, that significantly more rolling stock (in particular flat wagons, covered wagons and covered hopper wagons) as well as improved asset utilisation would be vital to facilitate the transport of increased freight volume as required in the EU Transport White Paper 2011 European Commission [8]. Another important aspect of international railway freight transport was examined by Islam et al [14].…”