European decarbonisation pathways under alternative technological and policy choices: A multi-model analysis

Capros, Pantélis; Paroussos, Leonidas; Fragkos, Panagiotis; Tsani, Stella; Boitier, Baptiste; Wagner, Fabian; Busch, Sebastian; Resch, Gustav; Blesl, Markus; Bollen, Johannes

doi:10.1016/j.esr.2013.12.007

Cited by 118 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…They can create cost savings corresponding to 35% of the cost of achieving the EU 2050 climate and the Helcom BSAP nutrient targets in 2035. The cost saving in percentage for achieving the EU climate target is of the same magnitude as that obtained in other studies [34]. In absolute terms, the total value amounts to 307 billion SEK, which corresponds to approximately 0.45% of the region's gross domestic product.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 68%

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Estimating Values of Carbon Sequestration and Nutrient Recycling in Forests: An Application to the Stockholm-Mälar Region in Sweden

Gren

2015

Forests

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Abstract:We calculate values of forest carbon sequestration and nutrient recycling applying the replacement cost method. The value is then determined as the savings in costs by the replacement of more expensive abatement measures with these ecosystem services in cost-effective climate and nutrient programs. To this end, a dynamic optimization model is constructed, which accounts for uncertainty in sequestration. It is applied to the Stockholm-Mälar region in southeast Sweden where the EU 2050 climate policy for carbon emissions and the Baltic Sea action plan for nutrient discharges are applied. The results show that the value of carbon and nutrient sequestration can correspond to approximately 0.5% of the region's gross domestic product, or 40% of the value of productive forest. The largest part of this value is attributed to carbon sequestration because of the relative stringency in targets and expensive alternative abatement measures. However, sequestration is uncertain because of stochastic weather conditions, and when society has a large risk aversion for not attaining climate and nutrient targets, the values of the forest carbon and nutrient sequestration can approach zero.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 68%

“…The calculated total cost of reaching the EU 2050 climate targets as measured in per cent of gross domestic product of the Stockholm-Mälar region, 1.12%, is within the range of that obtained for reaching the EU 2050 climate targets [34]. The calculated marginal cost of CO2e reduction is also within the range of other studies.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Estimating Values of Carbon Sequestration and Nutrient Recycling in Forests: An Application to the Stockholm-Mälar Region in Sweden

Gren

2015

Forests

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“…At the EU level, the Commission has recently published "The Clean Energy For All Europeans" package (European Commission, 2016b) which includes fully updated model-based energy scenarios involving deep emission reductions and legislative action to foster transition to the horizon of 2030. Capros et al (2014) provides a detailed comparison of large-scale energy system models used in the analysis of EU decarbonisation pathways, while a companion paper studies multiple scenarios across these models for the deep decarbonisation of the energy system by 2050 (Capros et al, 2014b). This paper finds that deep decarbonisation scenarios across different models display some key commonalities, and that in the short-term the failure to deploy the necessary enabling conditions for longer-term transformation can jeapodise the feasibility of long-term energy system decarbonisation (Capros et al, 2014b, pp.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tracking sectoral progress in the deep decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe

et al. 2017

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Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of each Member State of the European Union (EU), and the EU in aggregate, in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as sectoral activity levels and composition, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that while the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy system. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

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“…The mainstream energy system and energy policy research focuses on the technical and economic aspects of renewable energy scenarios [25][26][27][28][29]. Over the last decade, numerous studies have shown that high -up to 100% -shares of renewables are technically feasible and economically attractive in many countries and regions, including Australia [30], Denmark [31], Germany [32], the US [33], Europe [3,34], Europe and MENA (Middle East and North Africa) [35], and even globally [36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shades of green: Centralisation, decentralisation and controversy among European renewable electricity visions

Lilliestam

Hanger

2016

Energy Research & Social Science

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a b s t r a c tTo decarbonise its electricity system, Europe must rapidly expand renewables. We analyse the controversy between two organisations, Eurosolar and Desertec, which seemingly pursue the same goal of 100% renewable electricity. We show that they interpret "100% renewables" differently and envision fundamentally different renewable electricity futures, to be reached through different governance pathways driven by different actors. Desertec reacts to mankind's violation of the Earth's carrying capacity and seeks secure decarbonisation through renewables, for which centrally regulated, large-scale imports of controllable concentrating solar power from the desert are necessary. Eurosolar, in contrast, seeks to decentralise the electricity supply and disempower the actors who caused the unsustainable and undemocratic energy system, for which renewables are suited as they are carbon-neutral and decentralised by nature. As the core aim of Desertec, controllable solar power imports through large-scale infrastructure, violates Eurosolar's core aim of decentralisation, a compromise is difficult: this would require one organisation to give up its primary objective. Our results show that the reason for this controversy among renewables proponents lies not in technology or cost, and can thus not be identified or resolved through techno-economic analysis or modelling, but in irreconcilable differences in normative aims and governance choices.

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European decarbonisation pathways under alternative technological and policy choices: A multi-model analysis

Cited by 118 publications

References 9 publications

Estimating Values of Carbon Sequestration and Nutrient Recycling in Forests: An Application to the Stockholm-Mälar Region in Sweden

Estimating Values of Carbon Sequestration and Nutrient Recycling in Forests: An Application to the Stockholm-Mälar Region in Sweden

Tracking sectoral progress in the deep decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe

Shades of green: Centralisation, decentralisation and controversy among European renewable electricity visions

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