Europe's Golden Age: an econometric investigation of changing trend rates of growth

Crafts, Nicholas; Mills, Terence C.

doi:10.1017/cbo9780511599255.012

Cited by 25 publications

(17 citation statements)

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“…Structural change appears to have contributed significantly to growth acceleration while lack of exposition to international competition represents a recurrent element of retardation. 35 Crafts and Mills (1996) add that, from a European perspective, discontinuities in the historical GDP series are highlighted.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This (1) 36 Cf. Zivot and Andrew (1992) and Ben-David, Lumsdaine and Papell (1996), for the consideration of a priori unknown breaks, while Perron (1989) and Crafts and Mills (1996), contrast previously defined breaks. Cubel and Palafox (1998) and, more recently, Pons and Tirado (2006) use the endogenous procedure to establish structural breaks in their historical studies of Spain.…”

Section: Appendix Statistical Characteristics Of the New Gdp Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Growth and structural change in Spain, 1850–2000: a european perspective

Escosura

2007

RHE / JILAEH

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RESUMENEn este ensayo se examina el progreso económico a largo plazo de la España contemporánea y se sitúa en perspectiva europea. En siglo y medio, la renta per capita aumentó quince veces. Tres grandes fases pueden distinguirse: 1850-1950, 1951-1974 y 1975-2000. El peor comportamiento relativo de España en el largo plazo se debió fundamentalmente al lento crecimiento durante etapas concretas del siglo anterior a 1950. En la segunda mitad del siglo XX, y en particular, durante 1959-1974, España acortó distancias. El cambio estructural contribuyó significativamente a la aceleración del crecimiento, en tanto la falta de exposición a la competencia internacional constituyó un elemento recurrente de atraso. ABSTRACTLong run economic progress in modern Spain is assessed in this paper and its performance placed in European perspective. Over one and a half centuries, income per person rose 15 times. Three main phases can be established: 1850-1950, 1951-1974 and 1975-2000. Spain underperformed in the long run mostly due to its sluggish growth in specific phases of the century prior to 1950. Catching up took place in the late twentieth century, in which the years 1959-74 stand out. Structural change contributed significantly to growth acceleration while lack of exposition to international competition represents a recurrent element of retardation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Appendix Statistical Characteristics Of the New Gdp Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth and structural change in Spain, 1850–2000: a european perspective

Escosura

2007

RHE / JILAEH

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“…It is important, however, to emphasize that the unit root tests reported there have as an alternative hypothesis a simple trend stationary process and so do not allow for any shifts in structure. Since Perron (1989), it is now well known that the power of unit root tests is extremely low when the trend function contains a shift in slope, and evidence has been provided by Crafts and Mills (1996a) that segmented trend stationary processes, perhaps with several breaks, may be required for modelling many of the output series being analysed here. The typical model estimated by them can be expressed as the extension of (2) to…”

Section: â Modelling Convergence In a Time Series Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

After the Golden Age: A Long‐Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded up, Slowed Down and Still Differ

Mills

Crafts

2000

The Manchester School

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This paper contains an econometric analysis of international convergence in growth allowing for the possibility of several trend breaks. The results o¡er further evidence against strong hypotheses of convergence but demonstrate the existence of common trends among subsets of countries. Trend growth estimates for OECD countries have fallen since the early post-war period when catch-up was strong, but nevertheless are generally higher than before the Second World War. Taking these results together with evidence from historical research, it is argued that the recent growth slowdown should not be seen as su¤cient reason to reject the hypothesis of endogenous growth. " IntroductionEmpirical investigation of the claims of the new growth economics has been highly concentrated on regressions based on international crosssections of post-1960 growth. While this has been valuable, a longer run perspective can and should be used to check the plausibility of inferences drawn from these data sets, which may be both less robust and of less general applicability than was initially believed. Further insights can be drawn both from assimilating ¢ndings by economic historians and from analysis of time series of long-run economic growth in OECD countries updated in Maddison (1995) from his well-known (1991) estimates.Research in economic history has long focused on such topics as induced innovation, technology transfer and the possible catching-up of leading countries by followers. A substantial body of work exists which bears on major current issues in growth economicsöe.g. the appropriateness of the public good model of technology so hotly contested by Mankiw (1995) and Romer (1995)öbut which has been relatively neglected by growth economists despite the lead given by Abramovitz (1986) in a

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“…To isolate trend rates of European post-war growth, Crafts and Mills (1996) reject a unit root representation of European growth rates in favor of a segmented trend representation, ι y, = °o + Σ «,·('" Vi)' 1^, .,} + e twhere {e t } is a stationary process and l{ t > tM j is a function indicating that the period of observation is at least the i-th regime ending at the breakpoint T; for i -1, ..., I. Crafts/Mills (1996) select 5 such breakpoints, 1914, 1919, 1939, 1950, and 1973, with …”

Section: German Economic Growth: the Golden Age And Aftermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As an alternative to the segmented trend representation discussed above, Crafts/Mills (1996) allow the final breakpoint to be determined endogenously (see Figure 4 (b)). The reported countries fall into two distinct groups, those with breakpoints around 1970 and those with breakpoints in the middle of the 1950s.…”

Section: German Economic Growth: the Golden Age And Aftermentioning

confidence: 99%

German Economic Growth After the Demise of Socialism: The Potential Contribution of East-West Migration

Schmidt¹

1996

Jahrbuch Für Wirtschaftsgeschichte / Economic History Yearbook

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Europe's Golden Age: an econometric investigation of changing trend rates of growth

Cited by 25 publications

References 1 publication

Growth and structural change in Spain, 1850–2000: a european perspective

Growth and structural change in Spain, 1850–2000: a european perspective

After the Golden Age: A Long‐Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded up, Slowed Down and Still Differ

German Economic Growth After the Demise of Socialism: The Potential Contribution of East-West Migration

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