Europe’s evolving graduate labour markets: supply, demand, underemployment and pay

Abstract

For most students the aspiration to gain employment in a graduate job is the main motivation for going to university. Whether they fulfil this aspiration depends considerably on national graduate labour markets. We analyse the comparative evolution of these markets across Europe over the decade leading up to 2015, focusing on supply, graduate/high-skilled jobs, underemployment, wages, the graduate wage premium and the penalty for underemployment. The supply of tertiary graduates increased everywhere and converged, and this upward convergence is forecast to persist. In contrast the growth of graduate jobs was slower, not ubiquitous and nonconvergent. Underemployment was spreading, though at a modest rate; this rise was convergent but not ubiquitous. The rise was most substantial in Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Italy and Greece. Graduates’ real wages trended predominantly downward, but varied a great deal between countries. The graduate wage premium declined by more than one percentage point in seven countries. Inferences are drawn for the formation of education policy, for the broader discourse on HE, and for research on graduate futures.

The Evolution of Educational Wage Differentials for Women and Men, from 1996 to 2019

“…However, recent evidence suggests a stagnating college wage premium in the US between 2010 and 2015 (Valletta, 2018). Based on data for seven European countries, Green and Henseke (2021) find that, on average, the skill premium declined (moderately) between 2005 and 2015, but not in Germany. Rather, Reinhold and Thomsen (2017) find that the skill premium in Germany for the cohort of young university graduates (compared to middle and low skilled employees) increased until 2010.…”

Prediction of supply and demand for jobs in the Czech Republic

“…However, such fields are manually filled in by company representatives and this requires data preparation procedures and algorithmic techniques to be implemented in order to obtain relevant information in a standardized form [13]. Boon et al [14] present an argument regarding skills that is supported by the results of Green and Henseke [15] and Harvey and Turnbull [16]. These authors emphasized the growing importance of specific skills for labor market outcomes, such as wages.…”

“…These authors emphasized the growing importance of specific skills for labor market outcomes, such as wages. Green and Henseke [15] emphasizes the fact that employees with a combination of social and mathematical skills receive higher rewards than those with other skills, but Harvey and Turnbull [16] show that workers with certain skills (i.e. higher levels of selforganization) can receive higher rewards in digitally demanding industries compared to less digitally demanding industries.…”

“…higher levels of selforganization) can receive higher rewards in digitally demanding industries compared to less digitally demanding industries. However, only the study of changes in employment shares can neglect important aspects of real skills demand, as shown by Katou [17] and Green and Henseke [15]. On the one hand, the job serves as a representative for skills requirements and experience requirements at the same time.…”

Determinantes e impacto en los salarios del desajuste educativo

“…En el caso de que un trabajador con unas determinadas habilidades esté ocupando un puesto de inferior cualificación, el puesto de trabajo impondrá una restricción en la productividad que el trabajador puede alcanzar(allen y De Weert, 2007). En este caso, la limitación vendría por el puesto de trabajo y no por la productividad del trabajador.Como contraposición, desde el lado de la oferta se ha propuesto la "teoría de la heterogeneidad en las habilidades" (green yMcintosh, 2007)…”