EU economic integration agreements, Brexit and trade

Abstract

The effects of regionalism on trade have been extensively evaluated within a gravity model framework. With the expected exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), the prospect of regional disintegration has brought about a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using actual and forecast data for a panel of bilateral imports between the EU15 and the rest of the world, this paper examines the trade effects of EU economic integration agreements (EIAs), their evolution over time and the related counterfactual Brexit trade policy scenarios. Distinct trade effects are obtained for the EU trade related agreements; positive, significant and of similar magnitude for the EU and free trade agreement (FTA) coefficients, but negative and significant (and smaller in magnitude) for the regional economic partnership agreements (EPAs). The subperiod results suggest the positive coefficients of EU and FTA membership tend to diminish over time, implying earlier membership of EIAs came with greater trade benefits. Finally, in generating the predicted values for the trade effects of three alternative counterfactual Brexit scenarios (hard Brexit, hard Brexit plus, global Britain), the findings suggest an asymmetric effect depending on the perspective of the UK versus the EU. Whereas the UK's trade would decline substantially with all three country groups (the EU, the FTAs and regional EPAs) and rise substantially with the rest of the world, only minor percentage changes are predicted for EU bilateral trade.

[Retracted] Can European Union (EU) Enlargement Boost Regional Economic Common Growth? Multi‐Period Difference‐in‐Difference (DID) Method

“…At the same time, on the one hand, other European countries are waiting in line for the EU membership audit; on the other hand, the central cities within the EU are facing problems such as lack of resources, fiscal deficits, and high unemployment, especially in the context of the global economic downturn, the rise of trade protectionism, and the new thinking on the development of regional alliances as a result of the 2016 UK referendum on Brexit as in Stack & Bliss [ 1 ]. EU enlargement has not only changed the geopolitical pattern of the European continent but also changed the geopolitical and economic pattern of the European continent.…”

Evaluate the Post-Brexit Trade Performance under the Comparison Analysis between Britain and France in the Context of COVID-19

“…However, not all evidence from the previous study shows the negative trade effects of Brexit in UK. The research from Stack and Bliss strongly suggests that, although the UK's trade with all three groups of countries (EU, FTAs and regional EPAs) will fall significantly, while trade with the rest of the world will rise considerably, the percentage change in bilateral EU trade is expected to be minimal [7].…”

Industrial Economic Cooperation Between China and Nordic Countries Under the Double Circulation Pattern: Basis and Prospect

“…Tariff relief on commodities of trade complementarity can not only increase the mutual benefit in investment and trade, but also contribute to build free trade area network between China and FNCs. On the strength of the institutional arrangement of free trade area, both sides can form a larger market scale and elevate the international competitiveness of member countries [18].…”