Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy

Uncertainty in environmental impact assessment predictions: the need for better communication and more transparency

“…The most critical data needed to make a forecast often consist of assumptions about the future (Wachs, 1990). However, even the simplest assumptions about, for instance, birth rates, are highly uncertain.…”

“…That should bring about more certain predictions. Wachs (1990) claims that complex mathematical models and large databases give forecasts an aura of science, concealing from the public the possibility that the assumptions included in the forecast can be selected to help advocate certain courses of action. Ravetz (1998) criticises the models used in forecasting, and draws the conclusion that "… we thus have a paradoxical situation of constructs [the models] which have every appearance of being scientific, and which are generally accepted as such, yet whose epistemic status is really quite obscure".…”

“…Project descriptions may differ from the project as implemented for a variety of unforeseen reasons. They may also be adapted so that they correspond with what is acceptable to decisionmakers, later to be altered (see Wachs (1990) for an interesting discussion of this).…”

Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures

“…This is the most common type of explanation of inaccuracy in forecasts (Ascher, 1978;Buhl, 2002, 2005;Morris and Hough, 1987;Wachs, 1990). Technical error may be reduced or eliminated by developing better forecasting models, better data, and more experienced forecasters, according to this explanation.…”

“…They do this in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not the competition's, that gain approval and funding. Political-economic explanations have been set forth by Buhl (2002, 2005) and Wachs (1989Wachs ( ,1990.…”