Estudo do endividamento da administração local portuguesa: evidência empírica usando modelos de análise de dados em painel

Ribeiro, Nuno; Jorge, Susana; Cervera, Mercedes

doi:10.14195/2183-203x_38_3

Cited by 2 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…There are some studies applying static panel data models (Bastida and Benito, 2005;Pérez-López et al, 2013, 2014Ribeiro et al, 2013), while other authors apply dynamic models (García-Sánchez et al, 2011;Vicente et al, 2013;Bosch and Suárez, 2015;Navarro-Galera et al, 2016). In accordance with Arellano and Bond (1991), dynamic models are preferable 364 ARLA 31,2 because they allow to correct the possible inconsistency of static models.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is ample literature that analyses the effectiveness of debt restrictions as well as studies that focus on the relationship between environmental factors (demographic, social, political and territorial) and the annual debt, the public spending, the total debt, the deficit and the fiscal pressure (Borge, 1995;Kiewiet and Szakaly, 1996;Benito and Bastida, 2008;Guillamón et al, 2011;Pérez-López et al, 2013;Ribeiro et al, 2013;Vicente et al, 2013;Ribeiro and Jorge, 2014). Furthermore, because of the economic crisis, research that aims to develop a model for prediction of fiscal stress and to analyse the financial condition has become more relevant (Zafra-Gómez et al, 2009a, 2014Brusca, Manes-Rossi and Aversano, 2015).…”

Section: Previous Research and Definition Of Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Explanatory factors and limitations of Spanish local debt

Vera

2018

ARLA

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the Law on Budgetary Stability of 2012 over the level of accumulated debt in Spanish municipalities. The paper also analyses the influence of the socioeconomic environment, political factors and budgetary indicators on the level of accumulated debt for the 2008–2014 period, which coincides with the economic crisis. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses panel data methodology. First, the t-test of difference of means is used to analyse which political variables are significant. Then, the analysis is carried out using the generalised method of moments in order to obtain the explanatory variables of the level of debt. Findings The results show that in 2013–2014, the Law on Budgetary Stability did not have a significant effect on reducing the accumulated debt. However, the law has led to a change of the trend in debt levels, as the debt decreased from 2013 to 2014. Moreover, population, unemployment, immigration, personnel expenditure, direct fiscal pressure and level of investment have an influence over the level of accumulated debt. Originality/value This paper contributes to analyse to what extent the Law on Budgetary Stability has affected accumulated debt. The study reveals a slight impact on reducing debt, although it is not significant. An original aspect of this paper is that it uses dynamic models to study the accumulated debt of Spanish municipalities. The study shows the impact of socioeconomic, environmental and political factors as well as of budgetary indicators on the level of debt in the context of economic crisis.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Previous Research and Definition Of Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explanatory factors and limitations of Spanish local debt

Vera

2018

ARLA

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“…However, it is necessary to understand which determinants can justify debt levels, especially high levels of excess of indebtedness. The most relevant determinants can be grouped into three categories: institutional factors (tourist capacity), political factors (political ideology and form of governance), and economic-financial factors (tax revenues, State transfers, investment, capital revenues, and purchasing power capacity) (Fernandes, 2011;Ferreira, 2011;Ribeiro et al, 2013;Lopes, 2015), which support the following hypotheses of the study.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…Analyzing Portuguese municipalities is interesting, not only due to the high debt levels presented, which contributed to the country's public deficit and financial and economic instabilities but also because studies on this topic in Portugal are scarce. However, some studies analyze Portuguese municipalities, such as Fernandes (2011), Ferreira (2011, Melo (2013), Ribeiro et al (2013), Ribeiro and Jorge (2014), Lopes (2015) and Ribeiro and Jorge (2015), Pires (2019), Basílio and Borralho (2021). This work differs from the previous ones for several reasons: 1. most works focus on Law no.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Which Determinants Explain Municipalities' Debt? The Case of Portuguese Municipalities From 2014 to 2017

Lisboa,

Carvalho

2024

J. Professional Business Review

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Objective: Municipality sustainability is crucial for promoting the country's wealth and the citizens' well-being. Therefore, understanding municipalities' indebtedness is relevant to avoid situations of severe financial constraints. This work aims to understand the determinants that explain Portuguese municipalities' debt levels (both total and excess of debt), after the introduction of the Regime Financeiro das Autarquias Locais e Entidades Intermunicipais (RFALEI) published in 2013 (Law no. 73/2013). Theoretical Framework: In this work, the indebtedness of Portuguese municipalities is studied, from the perspective of net debt and excess indebtedness in order to give a broader picture of this topic and to be able to characterize the main determinants that explain debt in Portuguese municipalities. Method: Municipalities' debt is measured using not only the net debt ratio (as most of the works) but also the excess of municipalities' indebtedness. Institutional, political, and financial-economic variables are analyzed to explain debt using a linear regression model with fixed effects. The sample includes all Portuguese municipalities for the period from 2014 to 2017. Results and Discussion: Results show that only institutional and financial-economic determinants are relevant to explain municipalities’ indebtedness. Municipalities with less tourism, less State transfers, and with more capital revenues are the ones more indebtedness. Beyond these factors, municipalities with more investments and less tax revenue tend to present more excess debt. Research Implications: The results of this work are useful to a group of users of the information provided by municipalities: By knowing the main reasons that lead to debt, municipal managers can somehow reduce debt; Regulatory entities can create laws to limit debt and citizens know how public money is being managed. Originality/Value: This work analyzed all Portuguese municipalities, during four years, a larger sample than used in previous works. Moreover, institutional, and financial-economic determinants are also used, in addition to political variables, and these determinants show relevance to explain municipalities' debt. Finally, we focus not only on the debt ratio but also on excess of debt which was the main concern of RFALEI.

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Estudo do endividamento da administração local portuguesa: evidência empírica usando modelos de análise de dados em painel

Cited by 2 publications

References 40 publications

Explanatory factors and limitations of Spanish local debt

Explanatory factors and limitations of Spanish local debt

Which Determinants Explain Municipalities' Debt? The Case of Portuguese Municipalities From 2014 to 2017

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