Estimations and projections of Avena fatua dynamics under multiple management scenarios in crop fields using simplified longitudinal monitoring

Abstract

Integrated weed management (IWM) is currently the most appropriate and effective method of agricultural weed control. To determine the most effective strategy, it is necessary to compare the effects of different control options and their rotation. Avena fatua (common wild oat) is one of the most common and economically threatening grass weed species of cereal crops worldwide. To examine the effects of non-chemical weed management options (farmland use, delayed sowing, and summer irrigation) on control of A. fatua, we recorded coverage levels and field conditions in 41 sites during the spring growing season of winter wheat for about 10 years. A transition matrix model was then constructed to project coverage levels of A. fatua under each management option using ordinal logistic regression. The results showed that farmland use had a remarkable effect on coverage; notably, planting of paddy rice and vegetables, which respectively eliminated the effect of coverage in the previous year and facilitated rapid convergence of coverage to 0%. Thus, although 90% of fields under continuous wheat cultivation were found to be at risk of A. fatua colonization, the risk was reduced to almost 0% with rotation of effective farmland use. As summer irrigation was also effective, more than 50% of wheat fields with the option continuously converged to no risk for A. fatua colonization. When the different management cycles were repeated, the effects were observed within 3 years, with a steady state reached in less than 10 years. Overall, these results suggest that simplified monitoring data could help decision-making on IWM, thereby helping to improve the efficiency of agricultural production.

Scalable phylogenetic Gaussian process models improve the detectability of environmental signals on local extinctions for many Red List species

“…Let y ijt denote survival (1) or extinction (0) of the population of species i at site j in year t ; the binomial PGLMM with logit link function is as follows:where β i ⁎ is a vector of regression coefficients for species i , and x jt is a design vector at site j in year t . The design vector consists of intercept, environmental factors (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, agricultural land, urban area, volcanic land, wasteland, coast, river/lake and protected areas), and population size class in the year of the previous survey (Matsuhashi et al., 2021). As the population size class is an ordered factor, we transformed it into a series of polynomial contrasts corresponding to linear, quadratic and cubic trends (Chambers & Hastie, 2017).…”

“…where β i⁎ is a vector of regression coefficients for species i, and x jt is a design vector at site j in year t. The design vector consists of intercept, environmental factors (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, agricultural land, urban area, volcanic land, wasteland, coast, river/lake and protected areas), and population size class in the year of the previous survey (Matsuhashi et al, 2021). As the population size class is an ordered factor, we transformed it into a series of polynomial contrasts…”

Scalable phylogenetic Gaussian process models improve the detectability of environmental signals on extinction risks for many Red List species

“…where βi⁎ is a vector of regression coefficients for species i, and xjt is a design vector at site j in year t. The design vector consists of intercept, environmental factors (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, agricultural land, urban area, volcanic land, wasteland, coast, river/lake, and protected areas), and population size class in the year of the previous survey (Matsuhashi et al, 2021). As the population size class is an ordered factor, we transformed it into a series of polynomial contrasts corresponding to linear, quadratic, and cubic trends (Chambers & Hastie, 2017).…”

Climate effect on Avena fatua field emergence dynamics: A 38‐year experiment in the semiarid Pampean region of Argentina

“…Wild oat ( Avena fatua L.) is one of the most conspicuous weeds of the world causing considerable yield and quality losses in cereal crops (Matsuhashi, Asai, & Fukasawa, 2021; Scursoni, Martín, Catanzaro, Quiroga, & Goldar, 2011). Avena fatua is a facultative winter annual species meaning that emergence occurs mainly in autumn and to a lesser extent during early spring.…”