Estimation on probability of radiological hazards for nuclear facilities decommissioning based on fuzzy and event tree method

Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jeong, Seung-Young; Lim, Hyeon-Kyo

doi:10.1016/j.anucene.2011.07.004

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…In the traditional event tree analyses, the input variables and outcome data are both treated as exact values using an appropriate mathematical approach. Fuzzy event tree(FET) analysis is constructed by integrating event tree analysis and fuzzy theory [10,11]. Four event trees are characterized by vagueness and imprecision concerning the occurrence of debris flow disaster.…”

Section: Methods and Fuzzy Event Tree Analysis Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Prediction of Debris Flow Using Fuzzy Event Tree Based on Dynamic Process Factors in GIS

Wang

2014

AMR

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Debris flow is a kind of serious geologic hazard and Real-time prediction of debris flow is essential for the protection of human life and property. The objective of this paper is to propose a method for real-time predicting debris flow using fuzzy event tree (FET), which is constructed by integrating event tree analysis, fuzzy mathematics and expert knowledge. Xiu Yan County, An Shan City, Liaoning province in China was used as a case. The prediction assessment was based on four dynamic process factors, namely antecedent rainfall (AR), the maximum rainfall intensity (MRI) each hour, soil saturated liquefaction degree (SSLD) and soil instability (SI). The four dynamic process factors were viewed as initiating events in FET model for forecasting debris flow. The result indicated that the majority of study area is characterized by medium and low dangerous level. This study suggests that weather forecast, timely detection of SSLD and SI are important for preventing and mitigating disaster and FET methodology is promising for real-time foresting geologic hazard.

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Section: Methods and Fuzzy Event Tree Analysis Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Prediction of Debris Flow Using Fuzzy Event Tree Based on Dynamic Process Factors in GIS

Wang

2014

AMR

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“…Authors in [53][54][55]89] have defined these operations for the trapezoidal representation of the fuzzy numbers.…”

Section: Fig 5 Example Of An Event Treementioning

confidence: 99%

A review of applications of fuzzy sets to safety and reliability engineering

Kabir

Papadopoulos

2018

International Journal of Approximate Reasoning

142

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Safety and reliability are rigorously assessed during the design of dependable systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) processes are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). In conventional PRA, failure data about components is required for the purposes of quantitative analysis. In practice, it is not always possible to fully obtain this data due to unavailability of primary observations and consequent scarcity of statistical data about the failure of components. To handle such situations, fuzzy set theory has been successfully used in novel PRA approaches for safety and reliability evaluation under conditions of uncertainty. This paper presents a review of fuzzy set theory based methodologies applied to safety and reliability engineering, which include fuzzy FTA, fuzzy FMEA, fuzzy ETA, fuzzy Bayesian networks, fuzzy Markov chains, and fuzzy Petri nets. Firstly, we describe relevant fundamentals of fuzzy set theory and then we review applications of fuzzy set theory to system safety and reliability analysis. The review shows the context in which each technique may be more appropriate and highlights the overall potential usefulness of fuzzy set theory in addressing uncertainty in safety and reliability engineering.

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“…Using qualitative ET analysis, a number of event sequences (ESs) leading to reactor core damage can be evaluated [8]. ET can also be developed for the evaluation of hazards to get initiating events (IEs) of decommissioning activities [9]. However, there is no existing approach that can be used to find critical safety systems of an NPP that possibly cause the reactor core damage due to the occurrence of an IE.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Event Sequence Based Fault Tree Analysis to Evaluate Minimal Combination of Event Sequences Leading to the Reactor Core Damage

SONY TJAHYANİ,

PURBA,

EKARİANSYAH

et al. 2023

Gazi University Journal of Science

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Probabilistic safety assessment has been widely used to evaluate nuclear power plant safety systems. It couples fault tree (FT) analysis and event tree (ET) analysis. FT analysis is to develop failure scenarios, to quantify the failure probability and to identify critical components. ET analysis is to develop event sequences (ESs) leading to reactor core damage and quantify core damage frequency. Currently, there is no approach in probabilistic safety assessment that can be used to identify minimal combinations of safety system failures leading to reactor core damage. This study proposes an event sequence based fault tree analysis, which integrates FT model with ET model. The ET model is to identify the ESs leading to the reactor core damage. Meanwhile, the FT model is to identify minimal combinations of those ESs found in the ET model. The motivation of this study is on how to identify critical safety systems in nuclear power plants to mitigate disturbances caused by a group of postulated initiating events to avoid core damage. To confirm the feasibility and the applicability of the proposed approach, the performance of the AP1000 passive core cooling system is evaluated. It is found that if in-containment refueling water storage tank, automatic depressurization system - full, accumulator, core make-up tank, and passive residual heat removal work properly, the reactor core will intact. These results confirmed that the proposed approach can be applicable to identify minimal combinations of safety systems to keep the reactor core intact.

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Estimation on probability of radiological hazards for nuclear facilities decommissioning based on fuzzy and event tree method

Cited by 4 publications

References 2 publications

Real-Time Prediction of Debris Flow Using Fuzzy Event Tree Based on Dynamic Process Factors in GIS

Real-Time Prediction of Debris Flow Using Fuzzy Event Tree Based on Dynamic Process Factors in GIS

A review of applications of fuzzy sets to safety and reliability engineering

Event Sequence Based Fault Tree Analysis to Evaluate Minimal Combination of Event Sequences Leading to the Reactor Core Damage

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