Estimation of the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 using proportional meta-analysis of nationwide contact tracing data in Taiwan

Huang, Yuejiao; Tu, Yu–Kang; Lai, Pei Chun

doi:10.1016/j.jmii.2020.06.003

Cited by 23 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Evidence regarding attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the hospital setting is scarce. However, the attack rate in our hospital was low (1%) and below the values reported in several transmission events, ranging from 4 to 100% [ 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 ]. By early March, the UHM had established several infection control measures that might have contributed towards this result, including the use of facemasks in common areas, reduction in bed occupancy, and restriction of the number of visitors.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 75%

Healthcare-Associated SARS-CoV-2 Transmission—Experiences from a German University Hospital

et al. 2020

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During the current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, healthcare systems worldwide have to prevent nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission while maintaining duty of care. In our study, we characterize the transmission dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 in inpatients and healthcare workers (HCWs) at the University Hospital Münster (UHM) in northwest Germany. We identified 27 cases of healthcare-associated SARS-CoV-2 infections (4 inpatients and 23 HCWs) who had contact with patients and/or HCWs without the use of adequate PPE. The contacts of these index cases were followed up for SARS-CoV-2 infection after unprotected exposure and a quantitative measure of probability of becoming infected, the attack rate, was calculated. In addition, transmission was evaluated in the context of infection control measures established during the pandemic and we compared the epidemiological data of all index cases, including symptoms and Ct values of virology test results. The overall attack rate in the hospital setting was 1.3% (inpatients 0.9%, HCWs 1.6%). However, during an outbreak, the attack rate was 25.5% (inpatients 20.0%, HCWs 29.6%). For both scenarios, HCWs had a higher attack rate illustrating their role in healthcare-associated SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Taken together, our experiences demonstrate how infection control measures can minimize the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the healthcare setting.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 75%

Healthcare-Associated SARS-CoV-2 Transmission—Experiences from a German University Hospital

et al. 2020

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“…The Bayesian framework has also been implemented in the estimation of the secondary attack rate of COVID-19, ie, the probability of the disease spread in close-contact environments (eg, family, household, dormitory, etc), which can be influenced by many factors, including personal hygiene, social behaviors, and features of close-contact environments. Namely, Huang et al ( 18 ) estimated that the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 in Taiwan was 0.42%-1.69% at the time when their results were published and predicted that in the future it would range 0.08%-8.32%. Finally, a Bayesian meta-analysis has also been implemented for investigating the association of smoking status with SARS-CoV-2 infection and the course and outcome of the disease.…”

Section: Bayesian Meta-analysis In Covid-19 Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian meta-analysis now – let's do it

Hackenberger¹

2020

Croat Med J

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“…There can be high mortality and morbidity for patients due to the spread of infections in hospitals (i.e., nosocomial or healthcare-associated infections) from infected patients to healthy patients, either directly through sharing the same rooms and environment, or indirectly through healthcare workers (HCWs) attending infected and susceptible patients. The novel coronavirus disease (Covid- 19) that has been reported since . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To implement this aspect in our simulations, we note that the secondary attack rates for Covid-19 (defined as the probability that infection occurs among susceptibles, following contacts with an infectious person or infectious environment [17]) have an estimated range between 0.46%-63.87% [19]. In a study focused on Taiwan patients [19], the authors estimated a secondary attack rate for the nosocomial spread of SARS-CoV-2 between 0.73%-2.93%. They emphasised that the low attack rates characterised the beginning of the epidemics (the data in [19] focused on cases between January and April 2020), with higher attack rates expected if the epidemics would continue.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a study focused on Taiwan patients [19], the authors estimated a secondary attack rate for the nosocomial spread of SARS-CoV-2 between 0.73%-2.93%. They emphasised that the low attack rates characterised the beginning of the epidemics (the data in [19] focused on cases between January and April 2020), with higher attack rates expected if the epidemics would continue. They also emphasised that in Taiwan the nosocomial attack rates were very low, due to staff training and increased awareness as a result of previous experiences with SARS.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Modelling the transmission of infectious diseases inside hospital bays: implications for Covid-19

Martos

Parcell

Eftimie

2020

Preprint

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Healthcare associated transmission of viral infections is a major problem that has significant economic costs and can lead to loss of life. Infections with the highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 virus have been shown to have a high prevalence in hospitals around the world. The spread of this virus might be impacted by the density of patients inside hospital bays. To investigate this aspect, in this study we consider a mathematical modelling and computational approach to describe the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among hospitalised patients. We focus on 4-bed bays and 6-bed bays, which are commonly used to accommodate various non-Covid-19 patients in many hospitals across UK. We use this mathematical model to investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections among patients in non-Covid bays, in the context of various scenarios: changes in the number of contacts with infected patients and staff, having symptomatic vs. asymptomatic patients, removing infected individuals from these hospital bays once they are known to be infected, and the role of periodic testing of hospitalised patients. Our results show that 4-bed bays reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 compared to 6-bed bays. Moreover, we show that the position of a new (not infected) patient in specific beds in a 6-bed bay might also slow the spread of the disease. Finally, we propose that regular SARS-CoV-2 testing of hospitalised patients would allow appropriate placement of infected patients in specific (Covid-only) hospital bays.

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Estimation of the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 using proportional meta-analysis of nationwide contact tracing data in Taiwan

Cited by 23 publications

References 10 publications

Healthcare-Associated SARS-CoV-2 Transmission—Experiences from a German University Hospital

Healthcare-Associated SARS-CoV-2 Transmission—Experiences from a German University Hospital

Bayesian meta-analysis now – let's do it

Modelling the transmission of infectious diseases inside hospital bays: implications for Covid-19

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