Estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in the Cheliff semi-arid region (Algeria)

Boucefiane, Abdelkader; Meddi, Mohamed

doi:10.1007/s00703-022-00864-y

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…To utilize such SDP and UAD data, PMP studies based on SDP and UAD approaches have been conducted using historical observation data and outputs obtained from climate models (Beauchamp et al, 2013; Boucefiane & Meddi, 2022; Chen et al, 2017; Kunkel et al, 2013; Rouhani & Leconte, 2016; Visser et al, 2022). Climate simulation data have been used to overcome the spatiotemporal limitations of SDPs and UADs and to evaluate the uncertainty of PMP estimation using the moisture‐maximization method from many SDP and UAD data (Ben Alaya et al, 2018, 2019; Rouhani & Leconte, 2020; Rousseau et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing uncertainty in probable maximum precipitation estimation with large ensemble climate simulation data

Kim,

Tachikawa

2023

J Flood Risk Management

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This study aimed to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimated using surface dew points (SDP) or actual precipitable water obtained from upper‐air data (UAD) in the moisture‐maximization method with the help of sufficient extreme precipitation events using large‐scale climate ensemble simulation data (d4PDF). The deviations between the PMP variables estimated by the SDP and UAD approaches were analyzed for southern and northern areas of Japan to consider the regional characteristics of the deviations. We found that the deviations were high in northern areas where the SDPs are relatively low during precipitation events. The PMPs estimated using each approach were also compared to the extreme‐scale reference precipitation proposed in this study. The SDP approach overestimated the PMPs by over 20% compared to the reference precipitation in the northern region. However, the UAD approach showed very low average errors in all southern and northern areas. This tendency of the SDP approach was significantly related to the regional climatic characteristics of the SDP, which indicated that the SDP approach may estimate an uncertain PMP value depending on each regional climatic characteristic compared to the UAD approach. Regional climatic characteristics should be considered when using the SDP approach to estimate the PMP.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing uncertainty in probable maximum precipitation estimation with large ensemble climate simulation data

Kim,

Tachikawa

2023

J Flood Risk Management

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Probabilistic modeling of dam failure scenarios: a case study of Kanlikoy Dam in Cyprus

Turkel,

Zaifoglu,

Yanmaz

2024

Nat Hazards

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One of the most perilous natural hazards is flooding resulting from dam failure, which can devastate downstream infrastructure and lead to significant human casualties. In recent years, the frequency of flash floods in the northern part of Nicosia, Cyprus, has increased. This area faces increased risk as it lies downstream of the Kanlikoy Dam, an aging earth-fill dam constructed over 70 years ago. In this study, we aim to assess potential flood hazards stemming from three distinct failure scenarios: piping, 100-year rainfall, and probable maximum precipitation (PMP). To achieve this, HEC-HMS hydrologic model findings were integrated into 2D HEC-RAS hydraulic models to simulate flood hydrographs and generate flood inundation and hazard maps. For each scenario, Monte Carlo simulations using McBreach software produced four hydrographs corresponding to exceedance probabilities of 90%, 50%, 10%, and 1%. The results indicate that all dam breach scenarios pose a significant threat to agricultural and residential areas, leading to the destruction of numerous buildings, roads, and infrastructures. Particularly, Scenario 3, which includes PMP, was identified as the most destructive, resulting in prevailing flood hazard levels of H5 and H6 in the inundated areas. The proportion of inundated areas in these high hazard levels varied between 52.8% and 57.4%, with the number of vulnerable structures increasing from 248 to 321 for exceedance probabilities of 90% and 1%, respectively. Additionally, the number of flooded buildings ranged from 842 to 935, and 26 to 34 km of roads were found to be inundated in this scenario. These findings revealed the need for authorities to develop comprehensive evacuation plans and establish an efficient warning system to mitigate the flood risks associated with dam failure.

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Re-inventing Bethlahmy method for estimating probable maximum precipitation

Bhatt,

Srinivas

2023

Journal of Hydrology

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Estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) in the Cheliff semi-arid region (Algeria)

Cited by 3 publications

References 50 publications

Analyzing uncertainty in probable maximum precipitation estimation with large ensemble climate simulation data

Analyzing uncertainty in probable maximum precipitation estimation with large ensemble climate simulation data

Probabilistic modeling of dam failure scenarios: a case study of Kanlikoy Dam in Cyprus

Re-inventing Bethlahmy method for estimating probable maximum precipitation

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