Estimation of the percentile of Birnbaum-Saunders distribution and its application to PM2.5 in Northern Thailand

Abstract

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution plays a crucial role in statistical analysis, serving as a model for failure time distribution in engineering and the distribution of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) in environmental sciences. When assessing the health risks linked to PM2.5, it is crucial to give significant weight to percentile values, particularly focusing on lower percentiles, as they offer a more precise depiction of exposure levels and potential health hazards for the population. Mean and variance metrics may not fully encapsulate the comprehensive spectrum of risks connected to PM2.5 exposure. Various approaches, including the generalized confidence interval (GCI) approach, the bootstrap approach, the Bayesian approach, and the highest posterior density (HPD) approach, were employed to establish confidence intervals for the percentile of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. To assess the performance of these intervals, Monte Carlo simulations were conducted, evaluating them based on coverage probability and average length. The results demonstrate that the GCI approach is a favorable choice for estimating percentile confidence intervals. In conclusion, this article presents the results of the simulation study and showcases the practical application of these findings in the field of environmental sciences.