Estimation of the Odds Ratio in Vaccinated Individuals and Determination of Vaccine Efficacy against Sars-CoV-2 Infection in Angola – Part I

Abstract

Introduction: Studies conducted in real-life scenarios on vaccine protection against COVID-19 constitute an important global priority, but one that is currently mostly neglected in low- and middle-income countries such as Angola. Here, we analyze for the first-time vaccine protection against COVID-19 in a real-life scenario after 6 months of implementing a multi-vaccination plan in Angola, providing estimation of odds ratios in vaccinated individuals and vaccine efficacy against infection by SARS-CoV-2 in a period that coincided with the identification of the Omicron variant in the country. Methods: We used a negative test case-control design to assess the effectiveness of vaccination against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 4.232 vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with the result of a rapid antigen diagnostic test against SARS-CoV-2 performed from December 27 to 28, 2021 were included in the study. Data were extracted from the Digital Vaccination Record Platform (Rediv) of the Ministry of Health of Angola. All ethical procedures related to the authorization necessary to carry out the study were followed. Statistical analyzes were performed using version 7.5.2.0 of CDC's Epi Info. Frequency distributions and measures of central tendency were used to characterize the study universe. The general and sex-adjusted and age-adjusted odds ratios, were evaluated by comparing the chances of vaccination between cases and controls, and their associated 95% CI, which were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel stratification method. The risk classification of Axel Kroeger, Piscoya and Alarcon was used to interpret the odds ratio. The Breslow-Day statistic was used to assess the homogeneity of the odds ratios. Vaccine efficacy was calculated using the odds ratio applying the accepted statistical vaccine efficacy formula:(1 − odds ratio) × 100. For all estimates, a P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The population consisted of 63.63% male and 36.37% female. The mean age was 36 years with a standard deviation of 13. 83. Regarding vaccination status, 83.27% of individuals were vaccinated and 16.73% were unvaccinated, with 21.81% positive and 78.19% negative for SARS -CoV-2. The odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection were 0.85 (95% CI 0.70 – 1.03) times lower in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated individuals, with P=0.09. The overall vaccine efficacy (VE) was 15% (95% CI -3 – 30). Conclusion: There was no statistically significant decrease in the chances of SARS-CoV-2 infection in vaccinated versus unvaccinated individuals. However, the overall vaccine efficacy was 15%.