2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019ja026947
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Estimation of the Occurrence Probability of Extreme Geomagnetic Storms by Applying Extreme Value Theory to Aa Index

Abstract: In this work, the occurrence probability of extreme geomagnetic storms is estimated by applying extreme value theory to the geomagnetic activity Aa index. The Aa index has 172 years observation time span, which is much longer than other geomagnetic indices, and thus is more suitable for analysis for rarely occurred extreme geomagnetic storms. We use two newly developed extreme value theory methods, block maxima method and peak over threshold, and find that the extreme geomagnetic storm that happened in March 1… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
2
1
1
1

Citation Types

0
7
0

Year Published

2020
2020
2022
2022

Publication Types

Select...
5
1
1

Relationship

1
6

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 11 publications
(12 citation statements)
references
References 40 publications
0
7
0
Order By: Relevance
“…Extreme value models evaluate the tail of a distribution and they have a wide range of applications in climate and atmospheric science to industrial risks, geosciences, finance, economics, and insurance [ 6 , 7 , 9 , 11 , 15 , 33 , 35 , 40 ].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Extreme value models evaluate the tail of a distribution and they have a wide range of applications in climate and atmospheric science to industrial risks, geosciences, finance, economics, and insurance [ 6 , 7 , 9 , 11 , 15 , 33 , 35 , 40 ].…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Acero et al (2018) applied the EVT method to analyze the geomagnetic Dst index and obtained an upper bound of 850 nT. In applying EVT, the block maxima method (BMM) is usually chosen, and it has been successfully applied in estimating the occurrence probability of extreme geomagnetic storms (Chen et al, 2019). Below, the principle of the BMM will be introduced in detail.…”
Section: The Evt Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The GEV distribution has been applied in a diversity of scientific projects (e.g., Ghil et al., 2011), in statistical analyses of space‐weather phenomena (e.g., O'Brien et al., 2007; Tsiftsi & De la Luz, 2018), and, in particular, in statistical analyses of magnetic storm intensities (e.g., Chen et al., 2019; Elvidge, 2020; Love, 2020; Nikitina et al., 2016; Woodroffe et al., 2016). The GEV distribution is certainly useful for parameter exploration.…”
Section: Models For Block‐maximum Samplesmentioning
confidence: 99%