Estimation of the occurrence of drought in Poland by 2060 based on the HTC index and probability distributions

Diakowska, Ewa; Stanek, Paulina; Iwański, Sławomir; Gąsiorek, Edward

doi:10.1051/itmconf/20182300006

Cited by 4 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…Dendrochronological data showed significantly smaller rings having formed during 52.1 % of these. Dobrovolný et al (2015) found very similar results for the Czech Republic based on a set of 3194 oak-ring-width samples for the last 1250 years (761-2010). Negative tree-ringwidth extremes were confirmed in documentary sources in 53 % of cases.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

“…Using documentary sources, two megadroughts (1540 and 1590) were also qualified as very outstanding droughts in the Czech Republic (Brázdil et al, 2013). Of those, however, only the year 1590 had a negative tree-ring width index (TRW) (of −1.818), although this value was not very high (see Table S1 in the Supplement in Dobrovolný et al, 2015). Brázdil et al (2013) using documentary evidence also distinguished three other outstanding droughts in the Czech Lands (1616, 1718, and 1719).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to studies by Somorowska (2016), the effect of drought extends from the south-west towards the central part of the country and, in some cases, to the north-east of Poland. Another study suggests that in the future some of the highest probability of drought occurrence can be in the central part with the lowest probability in south-eastern Poland (Diakowska et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Therefore, in recent decades quite a lot of drought reconstructions encompassing almost the entire millennium, or the shorter historical pre-industrial period, were constructed for different greater or smaller regions (e.g. Inglot, 1968;Piervitali and Colacino, 2001;Cook et al, 2004Cook et al, , 2010Cook et al, , 2015Herweijer et al, 2007;Pfister et al, 2006;Brewer et al, 2007;Domínguez-Castro et al, 2008Woodhouse et al, 2010;Brázdil et al, 2013Brázdil et al, , 2016Brázdil et al, , 2018 (see references herein); Dobrovolný et al, 2015;Fragoso et al, 2018;Hanel et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effect of drought on tree rings is observed as narrow rings (Koprowski et al, 2012;Opała, 2015). The relationships are significant enough to reconstruct drought in tem-perate climates and in cold regions like Finland (Helama and Lindholm, 2003), Sweden (Seftigen et al, 2013), and Czech Republic (Dobrovolný et al, 2015). Therefore, we have assumed that information derived from tree rings can complement the existing knowledge about past droughts in Poland.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

et al. 2020

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Abstract. The history of drought occurrence in Poland in the last millennium is poorly known. To improve this knowledge we have conducted a comprehensive analysis using both proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) and instrumental measurements of precipitation. The paper presents the main features of droughts in Poland in recent centuries, including their frequency of occurrence, coverage, duration, and intensity. The reconstructions of droughts based on all the mentioned sources of data covered the period 996–2015. Examples of megadroughts were also chosen using documentary evidence, and some of them were described. Various documentary sources have been used to identify droughts in the area of Poland in the period 1451–1800 and to estimate their intensity, spatial coverage, and duration. Twenty-two local chronologies of trees (pine, oak, and fir) from Poland were taken into account for detecting negative pointer years (exceptionally narrow rings). The delimitation of droughts based on instrumental data (eight long-term precipitation series) was conducted using two independent approaches (Standard Precipitation Index, SPI, calculated for 1-, 3-, and 24-month timescales, and a new method proposed by authors). For delimitation of droughts (dry months), the criteria used were those proposed by McKee et al. (1993) and modified for the climate conditions of Poland by Łabędzki (2007). More than 100 droughts were found in documentary sources in the period 1451–1800, including 17 megadroughts. A greater than average number of droughts were observed in the second halves of the 17th century and the 18th century in particular. Dendrochronological data confirmed this general tendency in the mentioned period. Analysis of SPI (including its lowest values, i.e. droughts) showed that the long-term frequency of droughts in Poland has been stable in the last two or three centuries. Extreme and severe droughts were most frequent in the coastal part of Poland and in Silesia. Most droughts had a duration of 2 months (about 60 %–70 %) or 3–4 months (10 %–20 %). Frequencies of droughts with a duration of 5-or-more months were lower than 10 %. The frequency of droughts of all categories in Poland in the instrumental period 1722–2015 was greatest in winter, while in the documentary evidence (1451–1800) droughts in this season are rarely mentioned. The occurrence of negative pointer years (a good proxy for droughts) was compared with droughts delimited based on documentary and instrumental data. A good correspondence was found between the timing of occurrence of droughts identified using all three kinds of data (sources).

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 53%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

et al. 2020

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A regional variation in the vulnerability of socioeconomic systems to climate change. A case study of Poland

Burchard-Dziubińska¹,

Grzelak²

2022

Optimum

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Purpose – The aim of the study was to identify the differences in the vulnerability of Polish voivod-ships to climate change, which may pose a threat to the sustainable development of particular regions. Research method – To achieve the purpose of the research, for each voivodship, a Synthetic Measure of Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Climate Change (SMSEVCC) was calculated. The SMSEVCC was applied in the linear ordering of objects characterized by several diagnostic variables, which were later replaced by one diagnostic value. Results – The implementation of sustainable development in Poland is strongly determined by cli-mate change and the associated extreme weather phenomena. The risk varies regionally and depends on the natural vulnerability of a given area that results from environmental conditions and the level of socioeconomic development. Originality /value / implications / recommendations –The paper presents a comprehensive analysis, eva-luation of socioeconomic vulnerability of voivodeships in Poland to climate change. Progress in the im-plementation of sustainable development requires strengthening adaptation measures to climate change, which should be adapted to the specifics of individual regions. An important element of actions for sustainable development should be the increased importance of the economic insurance system.

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Drought Model DISS Based on the Fusion of Satellite and Meteorological Data under Variable Climatic Conditions

et al. 2020

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The use of effective methods for large-area drought monitoring is an important issue; hence, there have been many attempts to solve this problem. In this study, the Drought Information Satellite System (DISS) index is presented, based on the synergistic use of meteorological data and information derived from satellite images. The index allows us to monitor drought phenomena in various climatic and environmental conditions. The approach utilizes two indices for constructing a drought index: (1) the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC), which characterizes meteorological conditions across the study area over a long-term period; and (2) the temperature condition index (TCI) derived from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, which refers instantaneous land surface temperature (LST) to long-term extreme values. The model for drought assessment based on the DISS index was applied for generating drought index maps for Poland for the 2001–2019 vegetation seasons. The performance of the index was verified through comparison of the extent of agricultural drought to the reduction in cereal and maize yield. Analysis of variance revealed a significant relationship between the area of drought determined by the drought index and the decrease in cereal yield due to unfavorable growth conditions. The presented study proves that the proposed drought index can be an effective tool for large-area drought monitoring under variable environmental conditions.

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Estimation of the occurrence of drought in Poland by 2060 based on the HTC index and probability distributions

Cited by 4 publications

References 8 publications

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

A regional variation in the vulnerability of socioeconomic systems to climate change. A case study of Poland

Drought Model DISS Based on the Fusion of Satellite and Meteorological Data under Variable Climatic Conditions

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