Estimation of the number of exposed people during highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in EU/EEA countries, October 2016–September 2018

Adlhoch, Cornelia; Miteva, Aleksandra; Zdravkova, Anna; Miškić, Tihana; Knežević, Dražen; Perdikaris, Sokratis; Śmietanka, Krzysztof; Świętoń, Edyta; Kopriva, Vilem; Chudý, Martin; González, Luis José Romero; Gil, Inés Moreno; Norell, Annica Wallén; Verdonck, Frank

doi:10.1111/zph.12629

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Analyses were based on sequence data: a) deposited in GISAID; b) donated by Member States via the EURL network; c) produced by the EURL (IZSVe) from submitted viruses. (Adlhoch et al, 2019)No human infection with avian influenza viruses, as detected in wild birds and poultry in Europe, has been reported during the period covered by this report or been previously reported (EFSA et al, 2020a). A risk assessment on A(H5N8) is available from WHO stating that the likelihood of human infection with A(H5N8) virus is low (WHO, online).…”

Section: Genetic Characterisation Of Avian Influenza Virusessupporting

confidence: 50%

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Avian influenza overview May – August 2020

Adlhoch¹,

Fusaro²,

Kuiken³

et al. 2020

EFS2

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Between 16 May and 15 August 2020, seven highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) virus outbreaks were reported in Europe in poultry, with one outbreak reported in Bulgaria(n=1) andsix in Hungary (n=6) and one low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5N3) virus outbreak was reported in poultry in Italy. All six outbreaks detected in Hungary were secondary outbreaks and seem to be the tail end of the HPAI A(H5N8) epidemic that wasobserved in poultry over the winter and spring in central Europe from December 2019 (n=334).Genetic analysis of the HPAI A(H5N8) viruses isolated during this reporting period from Bulgaria and Hungary did not identify any major changes compared tothe viruses collected in the respective countries during the first months of 2020. This suggests a persistence of the virus in the two countries rather than new introductions via infectedwild birds. HPAI A(H5N8) virus has been detected in poultry and wild birds in western Russia within the reporting period, and as of the middle of September also in Kazakhstan. The presence of HPAI virus in western Russiaand in north Kazakhstan,spatially associated with autumnmigration routes of wild waterbirds, is of concern due to the possible spread of the virus via wild birds migrating to the EU.It is highly recommended thatMember States take appropriate measures to promptly detect suspected cases of HPAI, including increasing biosecurity measures. According to past experiences (2005‐2006 and 2016‐2017 epidemic waves), the northern and eastern European areas might be at higher risk of virus introduction in the coming autumn‐winter seasonand should be the key regions where prompt response measures to early detect the virusshould be set up. One human case due to A(H9N2) avian influenza virus infection was reported during the reporting period.

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Section: Genetic Characterisation Of Avian Influenza Virusessupporting

confidence: 50%

“…Adlhoch et al, 2019)(Adlhoch et al, 2019)(Adlhoch et al, 2019)(Adlhoch et al, 2019)(Adlhoch et al, 2019)(Adlhoch et al, 2019)(Adlhoch et al, 2019)(Adlhoch et al, 2019)…”

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Avian influenza overview May – August 2020

Adlhoch¹,

Fusaro²,

Kuiken³

et al. 2020

EFS2

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“…Although more than 10,000 people were estimated to have been exposed to HPAI viruses during the events from October 2016 to September 2018 (Adlhoch et al, 2019), no human infection with A(H5N6) or A(H5N8) viruses, as detected in wild birds and poultry in Europe, has been reported during the period covered by this report or previously Thornton et al, 2019). Also, a study following up and testing people exposed to infected birds during A(H5N8) outbreaks in South Africa did not report transmission to humans (Valley-Omar et al, 2020).…”

Section: Human Cases Due To A(h5n8) or A(h5n6) Viruses Detected In Eumentioning

confidence: 99%

Avian influenza overview November 2019– February2020

Adlhoch¹,

Fusaro²,

Kuiken³

et al. 2020

EFS2

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Between 16 November 2019 and 15 February 2020, 36 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) virus outbreakswere reported in Europe in poultry (n=34), captive birds (n=1) and wild birds (n=2), in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Germany, Czechiaand Ukraine,one HPAI outbreakcaused by a simultaneous infection with A(H5N2) and A(H5N8) was reported in poultry in Bulgaria, andtwo low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A(H5) virus outbreaks were reported in poultryin the United Kingdom and in Denmark. Genomic characterisation of the HPAI A(H5N8) viruses suggests that they are reassortants of HPAI A(H5N8) viruses from Africa and LPAI viruses from Eurasia. It is likely that this reassortment occurred in wild migratory birds in Asia during the summer and then spread to eastern Europe with the autumnmigration. This is the first time that wild bird migration from Africa to Eurasia has been implicated in the long‐distance spread of HPAI viruses to the EU. Given the late incursion of HPAI A(H5N8) virus into the EU in this winter season (first outbreak reported on 30 December 2019), its overall restriction to eastern Europe, and the approaching spring migration, the risk of the virus spreadingfurther in the west via wild birds is decreasing for the coming months. Genetic analysis of the HPAI A(H5N2) and A(H5N8) viruses detected in the Bulgarian outbreak reveals that these virusesare both related to the 2018‐19 Bulgarian HPAI A(H5N8) viruses and not to the HPAI A(H5N8) viruses currently circulating in Europe.An increasing number of HPAI A(H5N1), A(H5N2), A(H5N5) and A(H5N6) virus outbreaks in poultry in Asia were reported during the time period for this report compared with the previous reporting period. Single outbreaks of HPAI A(H5N8) virus were notified by Saudi Arabia and South Africa. Furthermore, in contrast to the last report, HPAI virus‐positive wild birds were reported from Israel and one of the key migration areas in northern China.Two human cases due to A(H9N2) virus infection were reported during the reporting period.

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“…The reasons for the selection of these states was, firstly the different environmental conditions w.r.t temperature and RH in these 2 states and secondly, the availability of consistent data on meteorological conditions and reporting COVID-19 cases. The select states have also witnessed breaches in social distancing norms 41,49,50 ; hence it becomes important to study the impact of environmental conditions in such states to rationally weigh the impact of environmental factors and social distancing factor. The raw data on meteorological parameters for the states is calculated by averaging all the stations data, considering 24 h data including day and night values, available from CPCB (Central Pollution Control Board), India and the station-wise data is appended as supplementary information in Annexure-V.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring dependence of COVID-19 on environmental factors and spread prediction in India

et al. 2020

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COVID-19 has taken the world by storm, with the majority of nations still being challenged by the novel coronavirus. The present work attempts to evaluate the spread of COVID-19 in India using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to establish the impact of socio-behavioural aspects, especially social distancing. The impact of environmental factors like temperature and relative humidity (RH) using statistical methods, including Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Pearson’s correlation, is also studied on numbers of COVID-19 cases per day. Here we report the resultant changes of lockdowns-unlocks initiated by the Government of India for COVID-19, as against the scenario of total lockdown. The phased unlocks and crowded gatherings result in an increase in the number of cases and stretch the mitigation timeline of COVID-19 spread, delaying the flattening of the curve. The SEIR model predictions have been fairly validated against the actual cases. The daily spread of COVID-19 cases is also fairly correlated with temperature in Indian cities, as supported by well-established causation of the role of higher temperatures in disrupting the lipid layer of coronavirus, but is greatly undermined by the key factor of social distancing and gets confounded with other multiple unknown co-varying environmental factors. However, the analysis couldn’t clearly establish the role of RH in affecting daily COVID-19 cases. Hence, it becomes essential to include environmental parameters into epidemiological models like SEIR and to systematically plan controlled laboratory experiments and modeling studies to draw conclusive inferences, assisting policymakers and stakeholders in formulating comprehensive action plans to alleviate the COVID-19 spread.

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Estimation of the number of exposed people during highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in EU/EEA countries, October 2016–September 2018

Cited by 8 publications

References 12 publications

Avian influenza overview May – August 2020

Avian influenza overview May – August 2020

Avian influenza overview November 2019– February2020

Exploring dependence of COVID-19 on environmental factors and spread prediction in India

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