Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, m max

Kijko, Andrzej

doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2531-4

Cited by 357 publications

(212 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…McGuire (2004) and Kijko (2004). While represents the maximum magnitude of an induced seismic event during the development of a geothermal reservoir (exploration, stimulation, circulation), stands for the very rare seismic event happening only every thousand or ten thousand years, and is difficult to be estimated based on observed data (Holschneider et al, 2014).…”

Section: Maximum Observed and Expected Seismic Magnitudementioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

et al. 2014

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In this overview we report results of analysing induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs in various tectonic settings within the framework of the European Geothermal Engineering Integrating Mitigation of Induced Seismicity in Reservoirs (GEISER) project. In the reconnaissance phase of a field, the subsurface fault mapping, in situ stress and the seismic network are of primary interest in order to help assess the geothermal resource. The hypocentres of the observed seismic events (seismic cloud) are dependent on the design of the installed network, the used velocity model and the applied location technique. During the stimulation phase, the attention is turned to reservoir hydraulics (e.g., fluid pressure, injection volume) and its relation to larger magnitude seismic events, their source characteristics and occurrence in space and time. A change in isotropic components of the full waveform moment tensor is observed for events close to the injection well (tensile character) as compared to events further away from the injection well (shear character). Tensile events coincide with high Gutenberg-Richter -values and low Brune stress drop values. The stress regime in the reservoir controls the direction of the fracture growth at depth, as indicated by the extent of the seismic cloud detected. Stress magnitudes are important in multiple stimulation of wells, where little or no seismicity is observed until the previous maximum stress level is exceeded (Kaiser Effect). Prior to drilling, obtaining a 3D -wave ( ) and -wave velocity ( ) model down to reservoir depth is recommended. In the stimulation phase, we recommend to monitor and to locate seismicity with high precision (decametre) in real-time and to perform local 4D tomography for velocity ratio ( / ). During exploitation, one should use observed and model induced seismicity to forward estimate seismic hazard so that field operators are in a position to adjust well hydraulics (rate and volume of the fluid injected) when induced events start to occur far away from the boundary of the seismic cloud.

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Section: Maximum Observed and Expected Seismic Magnitudementioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

et al. 2014

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“…In recent studies, we demonstrated that the absolute maximum magnitude M cannot be estimated properly from earthquake catalogs alone (Holschneider et al, 2011). On the contrary, M enters in the frequency-size distribution and must be set to some value (Pisarenko et al, 1996;Kijko, 2004) in order to allow the calculation of the seismic hazard. Although the influence of M for short-time horizons is usually limited, it cannot be neglected for longtime horizons.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

The Largest Expected Earthquake Magnitudes in Japan: The Statistical Perspective

Zöller¹,

Holschneider²,

Hainzl³

et al. 2014

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zöller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate λ above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of λ. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T f 30 years is m ≥ 9:0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.

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“…Alternatively, statistical methods can be used to estimate M max (e.g., Kijko, 2004). In these approaches, the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes can be assumed to follow a truncated GR distribution (Kijko, 2004;Holschneider et al, 2011).…”

Section: Usual Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In these approaches, the magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes can be assumed to follow a truncated GR distribution (Kijko, 2004;Holschneider et al, 2011). It is also possible to use a magnitude-frequency distribution with no a priori prescribed analytical shape (e.g., Kijko, 2004). Other methods use the theory of extreme values of random variables (Pisarenko et al, 2008(Pisarenko et al, , 2010.…”

Section: Usual Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of Mmax from Background Seismicity and Moment Conservation

Stevens

Avouac

2017

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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We describe a simple method to determine the probability distribution function of the magnitude M max and return period T R of the maximum plausible earthquake on crustal faults. The method requires the background seismicity rate (estimated from instrumental data) and the rate of interseismic moment buildup. The method assumes that the moment released by the seismic slip is in balance with the moment deficit accumulated in between earthquakes. It also assumes that the seismicity obeys the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law up to M max . We took into account the aftershocks of large infrequent events that were not represented in the instrumental record, so that we could estimate the average seismicity rate over the entire fault history. We extrapolated the instrumental record, using the GR law to model the frequency of larger events and their aftershocks. This increased the frequencies of smaller events on average; when these smaller events were newly extrapolated, they predicted a higher frequency of larger events. We iterated this process until stability was reached, and then we assumed moment balance when we found the maximum magnitude; we have found this method to be appropriate in applications involving examples of fault with good historical catalogs. We then showed examples of applications to faults with no historical catalogs. We present results from nine cases. For the San Andreas fault system, we find

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Estimation of the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude, m max

Cited by 357 publications

References 69 publications

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

The Largest Expected Earthquake Magnitudes in Japan: The Statistical Perspective

Determination of Mmax from Background Seismicity and Moment Conservation

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