Estimation of the Indicators of the Complete Duration of Unemployment According to the Sample Labor Force Survey

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to develop new statistical indicators that can more accurately characterize the situation on the labor market, based on the available operational and accessible statistical information. The object of this study is statistical indicators characterizing the complete duration of general unemployment. The empirical basis of the study was the data of the Sample Labor Force Survey (LFS) for 2017–2020. The research methodology consisted of a logical analysis, transformation and calibration of the initial statistical data (statistical methods of survival analysis were used for their processing, including regression analysis of censored data), as well as an analysis of specialized scientific literature and internet sources. As a result of the study, a procedure was developed for estimating the indicators of the complete duration of unemployment according to the data of the one-time sample survey of unemployed citizens, which involves the use of statistical methods for analyzing survival, transformation and calibration of the initial statistical information. Stochastic modeling has shown the high efficiency of the proposed procedure. The authors conclude that the practical examples given in the article for calculating the distribution function of the complete duration of unemployment according to the LFS data for 2017–2020 and derived statistical indicators, including its median depending on the age, sex and place of residence of unemployed citizens, as well as other research materials can be used by Rosstat, federal and regional executive authorities responsible for the organization and operation of social protection of the unemployed, in research and evaluation of the labor market and labor relations.