Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Spinach Cultivation Areas in Türkiye

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important problems that needs to be dealt with in Türkiye and worldwide. One of the sectors that will be most affected by climate change is the agriculture sector. For this reason, it is very important to adapt to changing climatic conditions, take the necessary precautions, and ensure sustainability in the agricultural sector today. The land suitability for spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) cultivation, a vegetable that is rich in nutrients, has never been investigated in Türkiye. Therefore, it is important to investigate the suitability of spinach cultivation areas in Türkiye in the case of possible climatic changes in future years. The most important original value of this research is that three separate climate change prediction models were used, as opposed to using only a single climate change prediction model, to determine the land suitability for spinach cultivation. The aim of this study is to determine the land suitability for spinach in line with possible climate change prediction models and scenarios in Türkiye and its evaluation by comparing it with the current model. To achieve this goal, HADGEM2_ES, CNRM_CM5, and MPI_ESM_LR climate models and RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used, and land suitability was determined and evaluated with the help of Ecocrop integrated into DIVA-GIS for spinach in Türkiye currently and in the 2050s. The results found that there will be decreases in suitable, very suitable, and excellent areas for spinach cultivation and increases in not-suited, very marginal, and marginal areas. Considering the possible temperature and precipitation changes, it has been observed that the areas in which spinach can be grown in Türkiye in the 2050s will be negatively affected by climate change due to the increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in general, and solutions are proposed in this study to ensure sustainability.