Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios

Xu, Chen; Dong, Yinqiao; Yu, Xiaoyue; Wang, Huwen; Tsamlag, Lhakpa; Zhang, Shuxian; Chang, Ruijie; Wang, Zezhou; Yu, Yuelin; Long, Rusi; Ying, Wang; Xu, Gang; Shen, Tian; Wang, Suping; Zhang, Xinxin; Wang, Hui; Cai, Yong

doi:10.1007/s11684-020-0787-4

Cited by 50 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…Trends with respect to the COVID-19 outbreak varied considerably in each country, primarily because of the different measures taken to promote disease control; these factors included the strictness of these measures, the timing of their implementation, and the resources available. 16,17 In an attempt to prevent or control an outbreak, various government-imposed restrictive measures had been used in different countries. 18 In contrast with Europe and the Americas, a majority of laboratories (135 of 167 laboratories; 80.8%) that responded to our survey reported that the districts in which their laboratories were located had implemented restrictive measures that were strict enough to limit patients' access to health care services.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on cytology practice: An international survey in the Asia‐Pacific region

Wang

Bychkov

Chakrabarti

et al. 2020

Cancer Cytopathology

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BACKGROUND: The purpose of the current study was to examine the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on various aspects of cytology practice in the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS: An online questionnaire was distributed to cytopathology laboratories in 24 Asia-Pacific countries to explore the impact of restrictive measures on access to health care, use of general and personal protective equipment (PPE), and changes in cytology workflow and workload from February to April 2020. RESULTS: A total of 167 cytopathology laboratories from 24 countries responded to the survey; the majority reported that restrictive measures that limited the accessibility of health care services had been implemented in their cities and/or countries (80.8%) and their hospitals (83.8%). The respondents noted that COVID-19 had an impact on the cytologic workflow as well as the workload. Approximately one-half of the participants reported the implementation of new biosafety protocols (54.5%) as well as improvements in laboratory facilities (47.3%). Rearrangement or redeployment of the workforce was reported in 53.3% and 34.1% of laboratories, respectively. The majority of the respondents reported a significant reduction (>10%) in caseload associated with both gynecological (82.0%) and nongynecological specimens (78.4%). Most laboratories reported no significant change in the malignancy rates of both gynecological (67.7%) and nongynecological specimens (58.7%) compared with the same period in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the survey demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a significant reduction in the number of cytology specimens examined along with the need to implement new biosafety protocols. These findings underscore the need for the worldwide standardization of biosafety protocols and cytology practice.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on cytology practice: An international survey in the Asia‐Pacific region

Wang

Bychkov

Chakrabarti

et al. 2020

Cancer Cytopathology

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“…These impacts include school and business closures as well as the ongoing psychological and social tolls of uncertainty, vigilance, and quarantine. In addition to the obvious physical medical impact of this disease [ 3 , 4 ], it poses evident threats to people’s mental health, psychological safety, and well-being [ 5 - 7 ], particularly given the risk of recurrent outbreaks [ 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Stress, Anxiety, and Depression Levels of Subscribers to a Daily Supportive Text Message Program (Text4Hope) During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cross-Sectional Survey Study

Agyapong¹,

Hrabok²,

Vuong³

et al. 2020

JMIR Ment Health

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Background In addition to the obvious physical medical impact of COVID-19, the disease poses evident threats to people’s mental health, psychological safety, and well-being. Provision of support for these challenges is complicated by the high number of people requiring support and the need to maintain physical distancing. Text4Hope, a daily supportive SMS text messaging program, was launched in Canada to mitigate the negative mental health impacts of the pandemic among Canadians. Objective This paper describes the changes in the stress, anxiety, and depression levels of subscribers to the Text4Hope program after 6 weeks of exposure to daily supportive SMS text messages. Methods We used self-administered, empirically supported web-based questionnaires to assess the demographic and clinical characteristics of Text4Hope subscribers. Perceived stress, anxiety, and depression were measured with the 10-Item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10), the Generalized Anxiety Disorder–7 (GAD-7) scale, and the Patient Health Questionnaire–9 (PHQ-9) scale at baseline and sixth week time points. Moderate or high perceived stress, likely generalized anxiety disorder, and likely major depressive disorder were assessed using cutoff scores of ≥14 for the PSS-10, ≥10 for the GAD-7, and ≥10 for the PHQ-9, respectively. At 6 weeks into the program, 766 participants had completed the questionnaires at both time points. Results At the 6-week time point, there were statistically significant reductions in mean scores on the PSS-10 and GAD-7 scales but not on the PHQ-9 scale. Effect sizes were small overall. There were statistically significant reductions in the prevalence rates of moderate or high stress and likely generalized anxiety disorder but not likely major depressive disorder for the group that completed both the baseline and 6-week assessments. The largest reductions in mean scores and prevalence rates were for anxiety (18.7% and 13.5%, respectively). Conclusions Text4Hope is a convenient, cost-effective, and accessible means of implementing a population-level psychological intervention. This service demonstrated significant reductions in anxiety and stress levels during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used as a population-level mental health intervention during natural disasters and other emergencies. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) RR2-10.2196/19292

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“…However, the estimated R of the COVID-19 epidemic in these studies is a static value, but R changes dynamically with the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. Therefore, a time-varying estimate of the effective reproductive number can better quantify the temporal dynamics of the disease 14 , such as the time-dependent reproduction number, which was employed to quantify the temporal dynamics of the disease in African counties and the USA 15 , 16 . Moreover, previous research focused on the R estimation of the overall transmission of COVID-19, but the epidemic trends in different cities vary considerably due to different policy-making and resource mobilization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

Cheng

Liu

Cheng

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Beginning on December 31, 2019, the large-scale novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in China. Tracking and analysing the heterogeneity and effectiveness of cities’ prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic is essential to design and adjust epidemic prevention and control measures. The number of newly confirmed cases in 25 of China’s most-affected cities for the COVID-19 epidemic from January 11 to February 10 was collected. The heterogeneity and effectiveness of these 25 cities’ prevention and control measures for COVID-19 were analysed by using an estimated time-varying reproduction number method and a serial correlation method. The results showed that the effective reproduction number (R) in 25 cities showed a downward trend overall, but there was a significant difference in the R change trends among cities, indicating that there was heterogeneity in the spread and control of COVID-19 in cities. Moreover, the COVID-19 control in 21 of 25 cities was effective, and the risk of infection decreased because their R had dropped below 1 by February 10, 2020. In contrast, the cities of Wuhan, Tianmen, Ezhou and Enshi still had difficulty effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic in a short period of time because their R was greater than 1.

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Estimation of reproduction numbers of COVID-19 in typical countries and epidemic trends under different prevention and control scenarios

Cited by 50 publications

References 32 publications

Impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on cytology practice: An international survey in the Asia‐Pacific region

Impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on cytology practice: An international survey in the Asia‐Pacific region

Changes in Stress, Anxiety, and Depression Levels of Subscribers to a Daily Supportive Text Message Program (Text4Hope) During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cross-Sectional Survey Study

Heterogeneity and effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 prevention and control in major cities in China through time-varying reproduction number estimation

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