Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit

Jiang, Xuewen; Mori, Nobuhito; Tatano, Hirokazu; Yang, Lijiao; Shibutani, Yoko

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-2085-z

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Tropical cyclones (TCs) are frequent and extreme weather events and have often caused significant damages in property and severely threatened the safety of human life [1]. Many coastal countries have been affected by TCs and have experienced serious economic losses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

Zhang

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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Typhoons can be serious natural disasters for the sustainability and development of society. The development of a typhoon usually involves a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, and a large amount of moisture. This implies that a large variation in the atmospheric water vapor over the path of a typhoon can be used to study the characteristics of the typhoon. This is the reason that the variation in precipitable water vapor (PWV) is often used to capture the signature of a typhoon in meteorology. This study investigates the usability of real-time PWV retrieved from global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) for typhoons’ characterizations, and especially, the following aspects were investigated: (1) The correlation between PWV and atmospheric parameters including pressure, temperature, precipitation, and wind speed; (2) water vapor transportation during a typhoon period; and (3) the correlation between the movement of a typhoon and the transportation of water vapor. The case study selected for this research was Super Typhoon Mangkhut that occurred in mid-September 2018 in Hong Kong. The PWV time series were obtained from a conversion of GNSS-derived zenith total delays (ZTDs) using observations at 10 stations selected from the Hong Kong GNSS continuously operating reference stations (CORS) network, which are also located along the path of the typhoon. The Bernese GNSS Software (ver. 5.2) was used to obtain the ZTDs; and the root mean square (RMS) of the differences between the GNSS-ZTDs and International GNSS Service post-processed ZTDs time series was less than 8 mm. The RMS of the differences between the GNSS-PWVs (i.e., the ZTDs converted PWVs) and radiosonde-derived PWVs (RS-PWVs) time series was less than 2 mm. The changes in PWV reflect the variation in wind speed during the typhoon period to a certain degree, and their correlation coefficient was 0.76, meaning a significant positive correlation. In addition, a new approach was proposed to estimate the direction and speed of a typhoon’s movement using the time difference of PWV arrival at different sites. The direction and speed estimated agreed well with the ones published by the China Meteorological Administration. These results suggest that GNSS-derived PWV has a great potential for the monitoring and even prediction of typhoon events, especially for near real-time warnings.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

Zhang

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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“…According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Japan, property can be categorized into six types-house assets, household item assets, depreciable assets of enterprises, inventory assets of enterprises, depreciable assets of agricultural and fishery activities, and inventory assets of agricultural and fishery activities. The value of these assets can be directly or indirectly evaluated from the census and economic census data under certain assumptions [38]. A group of commonly-used fragility curves in Japan that reveal the relationship between water depth and loss ratio for each category can be found in the Manual of Economic Survey for Water Management published by MLIT.…”

Section: Economic Impact Analysis A) Estimation Of Property Damagementioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan

et al. 2019

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Understanding storm surge inundation risk is essential for developing countermeasures and adaptation strategies for tackling climate change. Consistent assessment of storm surge inundation risk that links probability of hazard occurrence to distribution of economic consequence are scarce due to the lack of historical data and uncertainty of climate change, especially at local scales. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to construct exceedance probability (EP) curves for representing storm surge risk and identifying the economic impact of climate change in the coastal areas of Ise Bay, Japan. The region-specific exceedance probability curves show that risk could be different among different districts. The industry-specific exceedance probability curves show that manufacturing, transport and postal activities, electricity, gas, heat supply and water, and wholesale and retail trade are the most affected sectors in terms of property damage. Services also need to be of concern in terms of business interruption loss. Exceedance probability curves provide complete risk information and our simulation-based approach can contribute to a better understanding of storm surge risk, improve the quantitative assessment of the climate change-driven impacts on coastal areas, and identify vulnerable regions and industrial sectors in detail.

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“…Using exposure and vulnerability information, economic loss can be calculated. Economic loss encompasses property losses and business interruption losses [45]. Since hazard exposure and vulnerability information are both spatially distributed, economic losses can be spatially estimated.…”

Section: Spatial Flood Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This information can be obtained and processed from the census and economic census data of Japan. Fragility curve information, which describes the relationship between water depth and loss ratio, can be found in [45,49].…”

Section: Spatial Flood Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Spatial Flood Risk from Multiple Flood Sources in a Small River Basin: A Method Based on Multivariate Design Rainfall

Jiang

Yang

Tatano

2019

Water

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A key issue in assessing the spatial distribution of flood risk is considering risk information derived from multiple flood sources (river flooding, drainage inundation, etc.) that may affect the risk assessment area. This study proposes a method for assessing spatial flood risk that includes flooding and inundation in small-basin areas through multivariate design rainfall. The concept of critical rainfall duration, determined by the time of concentration of flooding, is used to represent the characteristics of flooding from different sources. A copula method is adopted to capture the correlation of rainfall amounts in different critical rainfall durations to reflect the correlation of potential flooding from multiple flood sources. Rainfalls for different return periods are designed based on the copula multivariate analysis. Using the design rainfalls as input, flood risk is assessed following the rainfall–runoff–inundation–loss estimation procedure. A case study of the Otsu River Basin, Osaka Prefecture, Japan, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and advantages of this method. Compared to conventional rainfall design, this method considers the response characteristics of multiple flood sources, and solves the problem of flood risk assessment from multiple flood sources. It can be applied to generate a precise flood risk assessment to support integrated flood risk management.

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Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit

Cited by 15 publications

References 14 publications

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan

Assessing Spatial Flood Risk from Multiple Flood Sources in a Small River Basin: A Method Based on Multivariate Design Rainfall

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