Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation for Dams in the Hongru River Catchment, China

Svensson, Cecilia; Rakhecha, P. R.

doi:10.1007/s007040050014

Cited by 39 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Indirect methods have increasingly become an alternative, wherein paleohydrology [19], which is also applied to modern floods, allowing us to compare the accuracy of different approaches [20], can be combined with a regional analysis of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site-specific PMP study [18,21]. Since the 1950s, PMP estimation methods have been greatly developed with advances in hydro-meteorological techniques, and the method applied in this study was the same as that described in [22], with the main assumption that the PMP will result from a storm in which there is an optimum combination of available moisture in the atmosphere and "efficiency" of the storm mechanism [23]. The main steps of estimating PMP include [21,22]:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Chen¹,

Lin²

2018

Water

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Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF) used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Chen¹,

Lin²

2018

Water

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“…However, most studies on storm maximization throughout the world have used only moisture maximization (Svensson and Rakhecha, 1998;Kulkarni, 2002;Al-Mamun and Hashim, 2004). It is believed that maximum possible wind convergence is impractical either empirically or theoretically.…”

Section: Storm Maximizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The hydro‐meteorological estimation of probable maximum precipitation under varying scenarios in Sri Lanka

Fernando

Wickramasuriya

2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used as an input in rainfall-runoff modelling to estimate probable maximum flood (PMF), which is required for the design of spillways of large dams. In relation to dam safety studies at 32 dam sites, an analysis was done of extreme rainfalls in Sri Lanka, which is influenced by the Asian monsoon system and cyclonic effects. Accordingly, the Hershfield's statistical method, which is one of the recommended procedures of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), was used for estimating PMP. It is also a technique that can be readily used in design office practice. However, it is of significant value and scientific interest to explore what the outcome would have been if the physically based hydro-meteorological procedure had been adopted. For this purpose, long series of annual maximum daily rainfall data from seven stations were analysed. The research shows that the maximum moisture and corresponding wind run or the use of maximum moisture alone are two scenarios, which yield results compatible with the statistical PMP. Although globally there is a tendency to exclude wind maximization, this does not automatically apply to a country like Sri Lanka, which experiences cyclonic rainfall and special attention should be paid to precipitation efficiency. These results are further confirmed by a frequency analysis based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. An approximate value of PMP could be in the order of 2.0-3.0 times the maximum observed daily rainfall. However, this aspect needs further investigation when observed maxima are near PMP storms.

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“…Studying the probability of the distribution of such events has been central to research studies of these extreme events to the present time (Loaiciga and Marino, 1991;Coles, 2001). Considering the probabilistic behaviour of extreme hydrological events is essential in the design of water-related structures, in agriculture, weather modification and monitoring, erosion control and climate change (Svensson and Rakhecha, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional daily maximum rainfall estimation for Cekerek Watershed by L‐moments

Yürekli

Modarres

Öztürk

2009

Meteorological Applications

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ABSTRACT:The estimation of maximum daily rainfall (PDmax) is usually required for the estimation of design flood (the maximum flood that any hydraulic structure can safely pass). However, PDmax estimation is usually required for watersheds where rainfall data are either not available or only available in short periods from various sites and so are unsuitable for maximum daily rainfall estimation. In this study, the regional PDmax of the Cekerek watershed in Turkey is estimated using the method of l-moments using 17 rainfall stations in the region. The discordant test for outlier stations showed no discordant station in the region. Applying the homogeneity measure, H i , the homogeneous region was identified. To find the best regional distribution, the Z DIST goodness-of-fit test was applied. This test introduced two distributions as the candidates for regional parent distributions; Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) and 3-parameter Log Normal (LOGN3) distributions. The LOGN3 distribution was selected as the best regional distribution as it has the smaller absolute value of the statistics (Z DIST ) based on the goodness-of-fit-test.

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Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation for Dams in the Hongru River Catchment, China

Cited by 39 publications

References 8 publications

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

The hydro‐meteorological estimation of probable maximum precipitation under varying scenarios in Sri Lanka

Regional daily maximum rainfall estimation for Cekerek Watershed by L‐moments

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