Estimation of Pregnant Women Possibly Left Behind in Tsunami Predicted Areas of Nagoya City: A Simulation for Rescue Planning

Abstract

Objective: In case of an outbreak of Nankai Trough Mega-earthquake, it is predicted that a tsunami would invade Nagoya City within 100 minutes, hitting about one third of the City of Nagoya. If the administrative plan of the city and midwives’ expertise are coordinated, pregnant women’s chances of survival will increase. The authors carried out this simulation study in an attempt to improve consistency of the two efforts. Method: We estimated the number of pregnant women using a machine learning model. The evacuation distance of pregnant women was estimated on the basis of the data of road center line. Results: Through this simulation study, it became clear that preparation for approximately 2600 pregnant women escaping from tsunami predicted area and for about 1200 pregnant women possibly left in the area is needed. Conclusions: Our study suggests that triage point planning is needed in areas where pregnant women are evacuated. The triage makes it possible to transport women to appropriate hospitals.

Predicted Number of Pregnant Women in Aichi Prefecture, Japan: Estimation by Machine Learning Database Construction for Disaster Preparation

“…Hattori et al 18 applied data of this study to estimate pregnant women possibly left behind in tsunami predicted areas of Nagoya City. The estimated data of pregnant women were combined with road centerline data 19 in simulating evacuation and rescue plans of the women.…”

A Simulation Model of Escapable and Non-Escapable Areas from Which Pregnant Women Can Reach Tsunami Evacuation Buildings: The Case in 110 Elementary School Districts in Nagoya City, Aichi, Japan

“…10 Hattori, et al showed that if Nagoya City were to be hit by a tsunami, more than 1200 pregnant women would not be able to evacuate and would likely be left behind in the tsunami inundation area. 11 Here, we present a method for constructing a simulation of evacuating to a tsunami evacuation building based on data from the city of Nagoya. This includes the following 3 steps:…”

Road Centerline Data Accumulation for Rescue Workers Whose Expertise Is Not GIS

“…The GIS is not yet very popular among health care workers. Road centerline data improve disaster preparation and planning more effectively 19 ; however, health care workers who have access to use the technique are not onboard. To help resolve this problem, Hattori 20 has developed the GIS training textbook for health care workers.…”