Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil

McCay, Deborah French; Rowe, Jill; Whittier, Nicole; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Etkin, Dagmar Schmidt

doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2003.11.013

Cited by 89 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…VRAKA provides a fully probabilistic estimation of the probability of discharge and a semiquantitative, three-tiered consequence assessment, allowing for different levels of input depending on the purpose of the assessment and available resources. Combining the probabilistic estimation of discharge in VRAKA with, for example, the SIMAP tool (McCay et al, 2004), which would provide probabilistic estimates of consequences, would offer a fully probabilistic risk assessment tool for potentially polluting shipwrecks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

VRAKA—A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Method for Potentially Polluting Shipwrecks

Landquist

Rosén

Lindhé

et al. 2016

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Shipwrecks around the world contain unknown volumes of hazardous substances which, if discharged, could harm the marine environment. Shipwrecks can deteriorate for a number of reasons, including corrosion and physical impact from trawling and other activities, and the probability of a leakage increases with time. Before deciding on possible mitigation measures, there are currently few comprehensive methods for assessing shipwrecks with respect to pollution risks. A holistic method for estimating environmental risks from shipwrecks should be based on well-established risk assessment methods and should take into account both the probability of discharge and the potential consequences. The purpose of this study was therefore to present a holistic risk assessment method for potentially polluting shipwrecks. The focus is set to developing a method for estimating the environmental consequences of potential discharges of hazardous substances from shipwrecks and to combine this with earlier research on a tool for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances. Risk evaluation should also be included in a full risk assessment and is the subject of further research. The consequence assessment was developed for application in three tiers. In Tier 1, the probability of discharge and possible amount of discharge are compared to other shipwrecks. In Tier 2, a risk matrix, including a classification of potential consequences, is suggested as a basis for assessment and comparison. The most detailed level, Tier 3, is based on advanced tools for oil spill trajectory modeling and sensitivity mapping of the Swedish coast. To illustrate the method an example application on two wrecks is presented. Wreck number 1 present a lower probability of discharge and a lower consequence in a Tier 1 and Tier 3 assessment. For the Tier 2 consequence assessment, the two example wrecks present equal consequence. The tool for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks, and the approach for consequence estimation, offers a comprehensive method for assessing the risks presented by potentially polluting shipwrecks. The method is known as VRAKA (short for shipwreck risk assessment in Swedish) and provides decision support, facilitating prioritization of risk mitigation measures enabling efficient use of available resources.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

VRAKA—A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Method for Potentially Polluting Shipwrecks

Landquist

Rosén

Lindhé

et al. 2016

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Wildlife mortality induced by oil contamination is directly proportional to probability of death by oil pollution, species density in habitat selected and area swept by oil slicks. The area swept by oil is calculated for the habitats occupied by the species of concern in the simulation model [15].…”

Section: Simulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The air immediately above the water was assumed to have the same temperature as the water surface [15]. All data cover 12 monthly periods ranging from January to December 2001.…”

Section: Spill Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The economy of oil spills: Direct and indirect costs as a function of spill size

Liu

Wirtz²

2009

Journal of Hazardous Materials

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“…However, to date few studies have presented a comprehensive image of effects of pollution based on numerical modeling using multiple hypothetical oil spills. French-McCay et al (2004) evaluated the potential bio-economic effects of hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay based on OILMAP modeling, using this three-dimensional oil spill model. Using Lagrangian passive tracer transport simulations Chrastansky and Callies (2009) analyzed the effects of chronic oil pollution along the German North Sea coast.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing pollution-related effects of oil spills from ships in the Chinese Bohai Sea

Liu

Guo

Wang

et al. 2016

Marine Pollution Bulletin

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An analysis of the effects of potential oil spills will provide data in support of decisions related to improving the response to oil spills and its emergency management. We selected the Chinese Bohai Sea, especially the Bohai Strait, as our investigation region to provide an assessment of the effects of pollution from ship-related oil spills on adjacent coastal zones. Ship-related accidents are one of the major factors causing potential oil spills in this area. A three dimensional oil transport and transformation model was developed using the Estuary, Coastal, and Ocean Model. This proposed model was run 90 times and each run lasted for 15 days to simulate the spread and weathering processes of oil for each of four potential spill sites, which represented potential sites of ship collisions along heavy traffic lanes in the Bohai Sea. Ten neighboring coastal areas were also considered as target zones that potentially could receive pollutants once oil spilled in the study areas. The statistical simulations showed that spills in winter were much worse than those in summer; they resulted in very negative effects on several specific target zones coded Z7, Z8, Z9, and Z10 in this paper. In addition, sites S3 (near the Penglai city) and S4 (near the Yantai city) were the two most at-risk sites with a significantly high probability of pollution if spills occurred nearby during winter. The results thus provided practical guidelines for local oil spill prevention, as well as an emergency preparedness and response program.

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Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil

Cited by 89 publications

References 10 publications

VRAKA—A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Method for Potentially Polluting Shipwrecks

VRAKA—A Probabilistic Risk Assessment Method for Potentially Polluting Shipwrecks

The economy of oil spills: Direct and indirect costs as a function of spill size

Assessing pollution-related effects of oil spills from ships in the Chinese Bohai Sea

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