Estimation of Parameters for the Mathematical Model of the Spread of Hepatitis B in Burkina Faso Using Grey Wolf Optimizer

Abstract

In this paper, we developed a mathematical model of differential susceptibility, taking into account vaccination and treatment, to simulate the transmission of the hepatitis B virus in the population of Burkina Faso. The existence and uniqueness of non-negative solutions are proved. The model has a globally asymptotically stable disease free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number R0 < 1 and an endemic equilibrium when R0 > 1. We estimated the parameters of the model based on hepatitis B cases from 1997 to 2020 by using a Grey Wolf Optimizer Algorithm (GWO). The results demonstrated the efficacy of the GWO algorithm in estimating the model parameters. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the determining factors in the spread of hepatitis B in Burkina Faso. The estimated parameters were used to simulate the spread of hepatitis B in Burkina Faso from 1997 to 2020.